Group 1: Domestic Economic Trends - The Politburo meeting emphasized the implementation of existing policies rather than introducing strong stimulus measures, leading to a market expectation gap[7] - In July, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 18.6% year-on-year to 6.49 million square meters, marking the largest monthly decline of the year[10] - In July, retail sales of passenger cars increased by 6.1% year-on-year to 1.834 million units, supported by a 138 billion yuan subsidy for vehicle trade-ins to be distributed in the third and fourth quarters[12] Group 2: Export and Manufacturing Insights - In July, China's export value increased by 7.2% year-on-year to 321.78 billion USD, indicating continued resilience in exports[15] - July PMI data showed a rise in prices but a decline in new orders, reflecting a "price increase with volume decrease" trend, suggesting reliance on supply-side adjustments may not sustain economic recovery[14] - The manufacturing PMI in July indicated marginal contraction, with the unemployment rate in the U.S. remaining stable at 4.2%, suggesting a weakening internal economic momentum[21] Group 3: Global Economic Context - The U.S. added only 73,000 non-farm jobs in July, with previous months' data revised down by 253,000, indicating a slowdown in job growth[19] - The correlation between A-shares and global indices is expected to strengthen, with the MSCI China and global indices showing a stable yield gap within 40% since early 2024[22] - If U.S. inflation and employment data in August reinforce expectations for a rate cut in September, it could positively impact A-share growth sectors[21]
政治局会议“托而不举”,美国经济动能减弱
Capital Securities·2025-08-08 10:15