Wanlian Securities·2025-08-08 10:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Maintain Overweight" rating for the consumer sector, indicating a cautious optimism about potential recovery in consumer demand in 2025 [4]. Core Insights - The heavy allocation ratio in the consumer sector continues to decline, with a significant drop in the overweight ratio to 5.85%, which is well below the historical average of 11.37% [2][11]. - The report highlights a clear differentiation in heavy allocation ratios among sub-sectors, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and beauty care seeing slight increases, while other sectors experienced declines [2][15]. - The top 20 stocks in the market include three from the consumer sector, with notable changes in heavy allocation ratios for food and beverage stocks [3][28]. Summary by Sections Heavy Allocation Trends - The heavy allocation ratio in the consumer sector has decreased for four consecutive quarters, now at 5.85%, significantly lower than the historical average of 11.37% [11][12]. - The heavy allocation market value ratio has also declined to 15.33%, down 3.48 percentage points [12][18]. Sector Performance - The food and beverage sector's heavy allocation ratio has decreased to 3.38%, while home appliances and agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry are at 1.38% and 0.46%, respectively [15][17]. - The beauty care sector is the only one among the consumer sectors to see an increase in heavy allocation, while others like retail and social services have declined [15][19]. Stock Holdings - In the top 20 stocks, the consumer sector holds three positions, down from four in the previous quarter, with notable stocks including Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye [3][28]. - The heavy allocation ratios for Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye are 1.74% and 0.38%, respectively, indicating a strong preference for high-quality assets in the consumer sector [28][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on food and beverage, particularly in segments like dairy, beverages, snacks, and condiments, as well as sectors like social services and tourism, which are expected to benefit from policy support [4][7]. - For the jewelry sector, the report recommends attention to brands with strong product design and operational capabilities, especially in the context of rising gold prices [7][19].