瑞达期货天然橡胶市场周报-20250808

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, there was insufficient positive driving force, and the rebound of rubber prices was limited. The import rubber market had active restocking by early buyers, and factory inquiries were based on rigid demand. The spot offer of domestic natural rubber followed the upward trend of the market, but the downstream buying enthusiasm was average, and the actual transactions in the market were mainly based on rigid demand [6]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Continuous rainfall in Yunnan has significantly hindered tapping operations, and the purchase price has remained high and volatile. The weather in Hainan is favorable, and raw material supply has maintained seasonal output. However, the spot market has faced difficulties in price - adding transactions, and some processing plants have become more cautious about high - priced raw materials, with the purchase price of latex stabilizing after rising [6]. - Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao ports has been decreasing, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory reduction. The arrival and warehousing of overseas supplies have remained low, and the overall warehousing rate has decreased month - on - month. The decline in rubber prices has stimulated downstream tire enterprises to replenish inventory at low prices to some extent, and the overall outbound volume has increased month - on - month [6]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has fluctuated slightly this week. Some semi - steel tire enterprises have stopped or reduced production, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Some overhauled all - steel tire enterprises have resumed work and moderately increased production, driving up the overall capacity utilization rate. However, some enterprises have still arranged overhauls, limiting the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may be slightly adjusted, with limited overall fluctuation [6]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,250 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,300 - 12,800 in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: This week, the driving force for rubber prices was insufficient, and the rebound was limited. The import rubber market had active restocking, and domestic natural rubber spot prices followed the market upward, but downstream buying was mainly for rigid demand [6]. - Market Outlook: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has been affected by rainfall, while Hainan has normal weather. Qingdao port inventory is decreasing, and the demand for domestic tires has limited fluctuations [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,250 - 16,000, and the nr2510 contract between 12,300 - 12,800 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - Price Trends: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed up this week, with a week - on - week increase of 2.57%. The main contract price of 20 - grade rubber also closed up, with a week - on - week increase of 2% [11]. - Position Analysis: No specific analysis content is provided in the text. - Inter - period Spreads: As of August 8, the spread between September and January contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 975, and the spread between September and October contracts of 20 - grade rubber was - 60 [20]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of August 8, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 176,320 tons, a decrease of 1,310 tons from last week. The warehouse receipts of 20 - grade rubber were 42,437 tons, an increase of 2,721 tons from last week [25]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Prices: As of August 7, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,550 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [29]. - Basis Trends: As of August 7, the basis of 20 - grade rubber was 339 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan/ton from last week. The non - standard basis was - 1,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 915 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.3 Industry Conditions 3.3.1 Upstream - Thailand's Raw Material Prices and Processing Profits: As of August 7, the field latex price in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 54 (- 0.3) Thai baht/kg, and the cup lump price was 48.3 (+ 0.5) Thai baht/kg. As of August 8, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 42 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.6 US dollars/ton from last week [41]. - Domestic Producing Areas' Raw Material Prices: As of August 7, the latex price in Yunnan was 14,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton from last week [44]. 3.3.2 Import Volume - In June 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical - grade, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 463,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 26.47% [47]. 3.3.3 Inventory in Qingdao - As of August 3, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 631,800 tons, a decrease of 8,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.35%. The bonded area inventory was 75,500 tons, a decline of 0.40%, and the general trade inventory was 556,300 tons, a decline of 1.47%. The warehousing rate of sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 1.66 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.12 percentage points. The warehousing rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 2.01 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.85 percentage points [51]. 3.3.4 Downstream - Tire Capacity Utilization Rate: As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.93 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, a month - on - month increase of 0.80 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.73 percentage points [54]. - Tire Exports: In June 2025, China's tire exports were 717,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31%. From January to June, China's cumulative tire exports were 4.1213 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.34%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 279,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.76%. The cumulative exports from January to June were 1.6144 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.62%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 407,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.11%. The cumulative exports from January to June were 2.3347 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.34% [57]. - Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales): In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 15% compared with June and a year - on - year increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to July this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [60]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant content provided.