股指黄金周度报告-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to repeated digestion of previous policy benefits and unimproved corporate profits, the stock index may face callback risks after continuous rise; for gold, although the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased, the easing of global trade tensions may lead to a continuation of the adjustment after the rebound, maintaining a band - short thinking [39][40] - In the medium - to long - term, the stock index's valuation is dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range shock; gold may face a deep adjustment due to the fading of tariff policy uncertainties and the release of dovish signals by the Fed [40] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Macroeconomic Data at Home and Abroad - In July this year, the growth rates of imports and exports both rebounded, mainly due to the rise in commodity prices and the low - base effect of the same period last year. However, domestic and foreign demand remains weak [4] 3.2. Stock Index Fundamental Data 3.2.1. Corporate Profit - The rise in commodity prices helps improve the profits of upstream raw material processing industries, but due to weak terminal demand, enterprises still face great operating pressure, with the phenomenon of increasing revenue but not profit. They have to reduce production and inventory, and the inflection point of profit growth has not arrived [15] 3.2.2. Capital Situation - The margin balance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is approaching the 2 - trillion - yuan mark. The central bank conducted 1.1267 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan [19] 3.3. Gold Fundamental Data 3.3.1. US Economic Data - In June, the number of new non - farm jobs in the US was 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. In July, the ISM manufacturing PMI dropped to 48, contracting for 5 consecutive months. Fed officials released dovish signals, suggesting that the time window for a rate cut is approaching [23] 3.3.2. Gold Inventory - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures have soared, while the New York futures inventory has continued to decline, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [36] 3.4. Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Be cautious of the callback risk of the stock index; for gold, maintain a band - short thinking [40] - Medium - to long - term: The stock index is expected to maintain a wide - range shock; gold may face a deep adjustment [40] 3.5. Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - Key data such as China's July investment, consumption, industrial added value, US CPI, and speeches by Fed officials [41]