Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the double - coking futures market oscillated upward, partially recovering from last week's decline. The trading volume of the main coking coal contract increased significantly, with a weekly increase of 12.31%. Currently, the divergence between long and short sides has intensified, and the market volatility has expanded. From the fundamental perspective, as the inventory pressure at the Ganqimao Port eases, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal continues to rise, while the domestic supply is affected by weather and production restrictions, with limited room for output growth. The inventory of coking coal in independent coking enterprises has changed from continuous replenishment for a month to destocking. The downstream replenishment pace has slowed down, and the upstream inventory depletion rate has decreased. However, as the overall inventory is lower than that of the same period last year, the upstream inventory pressure of coking coal has been significantly reduced. This week, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased, making it difficult to force active production cuts. Although the molten iron output has slightly declined, it remains at a high level, supporting the consumption of coke. At present, the spot market is cautious in following up, and the short - term upward momentum of prices has slowed down, with high - level oscillations for digestion [6][33]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Report Summary - From August 4th to 6th, the power consumption load in the operating area of the State Grid Corporation reached a record high for three consecutive days, with the maximum load reaching 1.233 billion kilowatts, an increase of 53 million kilowatts compared to the extreme value of 1.18 billion kilowatts last year [5]. - This week, the double - coking futures market oscillated upward, with the trading volume of the main coking coal contract increasing significantly. The divergence between long and short sides has intensified, and the market volatility has expanded. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is rising, while the domestic supply growth is limited. The downstream replenishment pace has slowed down, but the upstream inventory pressure has been reduced. The molten iron output remains high, and the consumption of coke is supported. The spot market is cautious, and the price upward momentum has slowed down [6]. - The newly revised "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" will be implemented on February 1, 2026. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. As of August 5th, the sample construction site capital availability rate was 58.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points [7]. Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors: The coking coal inventory is lower than that of last year, reducing inventory pressure; there is an expected decrease in coking coal supply; the molten iron output is at a high level, supporting demand [10]. - Bearish factors: The downstream replenishment pace of coking coal has slowed down; the import volume of Mongolian coal is gradually increasing [10]. Data Analysis - Coking coal supply: The domestic supply of coking coal has limited room for growth, while the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is rising. The operating rate of 523 sample mines decreased by 2.42% week - on - week, and the daily average output of clean coal decreased by 21,700 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants increased by 1.19% week - on - week, and the daily output increased by 5,900 tons. As of August 2nd, the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimao Port was 927,450 tons [14]. - Coking coal upstream inventory: As of the week of August 8th, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines decreased by 26,000 tons, while that of 110 sample coal washing plants increased by 21,000 tons. The port inventory decreased by 47,700 tons. The downstream replenishment pace has slowed down, but the overall inventory is lower than that of last year [15]. - Coking enterprise inventory: As of August 8th, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises decreased by 48,100 tons, and the available days decreased by 0.11 days. The coke inventory decreased by 38,900 tons. The coking coal inventory has changed from continuous replenishment to destocking [18]. - Steel enterprise inventory: As of August 8th, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises increased by 48,700 tons, and the available days increased by 0.12 days. The coke inventory decreased by 74,100 tons, and the available days decreased by 0.26 days. Steel enterprises continue to replenish coking coal slightly but destock coke [22]. - Coke output: As of August 8th, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises increased by 0.34%, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke increased by 2,900 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 0.32%, and the daily coke output decreased by 1,700 tons. Overall, the coke output has changed little [24]. - Molten iron output and coke demand: As of the week of August 8th, China's coke consumption decreased by 1,800 tons, and the daily average molten iron output decreased by 3,900 tons. The profitability rate of steel enterprises increased to 68.4%, making it difficult to force active production cuts. Although the molten iron output has slightly declined, it remains high, supporting coke demand [27]. - Coke price increase: As of the week of August 8th, the average loss per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises was 16 yuan/ton, which improved significantly compared to last week. The fifth round of coke price increase was fully implemented, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for dry - quenched coke in Hebei, Shandong and other places starting from 0:00 on August 4th. The implementation by steel enterprises was delayed compared to the price increase proposed by coking enterprises [28]. - Double - coking far - month basis structure: The spot price increase has slowed down [30]. Market Outlook - The trading volume of the main coking coal contract increased significantly, and the divergence between long and short sides has intensified. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is rising, while the domestic supply growth is limited. The downstream replenishment pace has slowed down, but the upstream inventory pressure has been reduced. The molten iron output remains high, and the consumption of coke is supported. The spot market is cautious, and the price upward momentum has slowed down [33]. - The sixth round of coke price increase has started. Some coking enterprises have issued price increase notices, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for tamping wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for tamping dry - quenched coke starting from August 11th. As the frequency of price increases accelerates, the acceptance of steel enterprises has gradually decreased, and the game between steel and coking enterprises has intensified. In the short term, the coke futures market is significantly affected by coking coal [36].
焦煤焦炭周度报告-20250808
Zhong Hang Qi Huo·2025-08-08 11:03