冠通每日交易策略-20250808

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall Market: As of August 8th, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Carbonate lithium rose over 7%, while SC crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. fell over 2%. In terms of capital flow, funds flowed into gold, carbonate lithium, and soybean oil, and out of CSI 1000, CSI 300, and CSI 500 futures [4]. - Specific Commodities: - Copper: Under the game between macro and fundamentals, copper prices fluctuate within a narrow range. Although the market has a strong bearish sentiment due to weak downstream demand, the low inventory in domestic warehouses provides strong support, with the lower support level at 78,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Carbonate Lithium: With the expected reduction in supply and optimistic downstream production schedules, carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate strongly. However, the risk of supply information being false should be noted [8]. - Crude Oil: In the short - term, due to the seasonal peak season for travel, the market is tight. But in the medium - to - long - term, with the planned increase in production by OPEC+ and the possible cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine, the downward pressure on crude oil prices increases, and the volatility is large [10]. - Asphalt: With the decline in the start - up rate and the weakening of cost support, asphalt is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future [11][12]. - PP: The PP industry is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended due to factors such as high inventory, slow downstream recovery, and lack of actual anti - involution policies [13]. - Plastic: The plastic industry is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended because of high inventory, slow new order follow - up, and lack of actual anti - involution policies, although the preparation for agricultural film may bring some boost [14][15]. - PVC: PVC is expected to fluctuate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended. With increased supply, weak demand, and high inventory, its own fundamentals are under great pressure [16]. - Coking Coal: Coking coal is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Although the downstream demand is strong, the market sentiment has cooled down, and the resistance to price increases has emerged [17][18]. - Urea: Urea is expected to fluctuate bearishly in the short - term, but the downward space is limited due to the support of industrial demand in the future [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - Price Changes: As of August 8th, carbonate lithium rose over 7%, and SC crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. fell over 2%. Among stock index futures, IF and IH fell, while IC rose slightly, and IM fell. Among treasury bond futures, TS, TF, and T rose, and TL fell [4]. - Capital Flow: As of 15:19 on August 8th, funds flowed into gold, carbonate lithium, and soybean oil futures, and out of CSI 1000, CSI 300, and CSI 500 futures [4]. Analysis of Specific Commodities - Copper: The supply is affected by the Chilean copper mine incident and inventory accumulation, and the demand is weak. Under the game between macro and fundamentals, copper prices fluctuate within a narrow range, with the lower support at 78,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Carbonate Lithium: With the expected reduction in supply and optimistic downstream production schedules, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the risk of supply information being false should be noted [8]. - Crude Oil: In the short - term, the market is tight due to the seasonal peak season for travel. In the medium - to - long - term, the downward pressure increases with the planned increase in production by OPEC+ and the possible cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine, and the volatility is large [10]. - Asphalt: The start - up rate has declined, and the cost support has weakened. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future [11][12]. - PP: The downstream start - up rate has increased slightly, but the inventory is high, and the downstream recovery is slow. It is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - Plastic: The start - up rate has increased slightly, and the inventory is high. The consumption off - season has not ended, but the preparation for agricultural film may bring some boost. It is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - PVC: The supply has increased, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is expected to fluctuate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - Coking Coal: The supply may be reduced, and the downstream demand is strong. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, but the market sentiment has cooled down [17][18]. - Urea: The supply is slightly reduced, and the demand is expected to increase in the future. It is expected to fluctuate bearishly in the short - term, but the downward space is limited [19].