铝产业链周度报告-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is approaching, and the subsequent consumption expectation is not overly pessimistic. The 60 - day moving average of 20,400 provides support for Shanghai Aluminum [55]. - The aluminum electrolysis industry is expected to maintain a profit of over 3,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year due to limited new capacity, high capacity utilization rate, rigid supply, and low - inventory support [27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The overall market volume continues to rise steadily, and the long - term production volume of aluminum is expected to increase. The cost of electricity decreases, and the market does not over - pessimistically expect subsequent consumption [8]. - The US employment data weakens, and the expectation of interest rate cuts heats up again. The domestic short - term market mainly waits and sees, waiting for verification in the peak season [9][12]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - The overall market volume continues to rise steadily, and the long - term production volume of aluminum is expected to increase. The cost of electricity decreases, and the market does not over - pessimistically expect subsequent consumption [8]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - The inventory has increased significantly, and the water - sticker sentiment has expanded [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Data - In the US, in July, non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The year - on - year increase in hourly wages rose from 3.8% to 3.9%. The number of initial jobless claims last week increased by 7,000 to 226,000, and the number of continuing jobless claims increased by 38,000 to 1.97 million, hitting a new high since November 2021. The ISM non - manufacturing index in July was 50.1, lower than expected. The expectation of interest rate cuts has heated up again, and the probability of an interest rate cut in September is as high as 91% [10]. - In China, in July, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The new social financing in July increased year - on - year supported by government bonds, and the growth rate of new loans was still high. After the Politburo meeting in July, the market sentiment cooled marginally, and the short - term market mainly waits and sees, waiting for verification in the peak season [13]. 3.3.2 Aluminum Industry Chain Data - Aluminum Bauxite: In June 2025, the domestic production of bauxite was 5.1933 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 203,600 tons. In July, the domestic bauxite market was stable, but rainfall in major producing areas restricted production. The procurement price in Shanxi has remained stable for two months. The annual production plan of a mine in Guinea is 20 - 25 million tons, and its resumption of production has changed the supply from tight balance to surplus. In the first half of the year, China's bauxite imports increased by 26.086 million tons year - on - year, with an increase of 33.74%. The port inventory is expected to increase. The import price is expected to have limited rebound [16][18]. - Alumina: As of late July, the national alumina production capacity was 113.02 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from late June; the operating capacity was 94.95 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons, reaching a new high this year, with an operating rate of 84.01%. In June, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; imported 101,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 168.4%. With the production of Chinese enterprises in Indonesia in the third quarter, imports may increase again. The domestic alumina price has rebounded, and the import window is close to opening [22]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The growth space of domestic electrolytic aluminum production is limited. The capacity utilization rate has exceeded 95%. From January to June, the cumulative production was 21.6948 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. As of late July, the national electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.232 million tons, an increase of 250,000 tons month - on - month; the operating capacity was 44.214 million tons, an increase of 550,000 tons, with an operating rate of 97.8%. Multiple capacity replacement projects have been put into production. Electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a profit of over 3,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year [25][27]. - Downstream Demand: In July, the average operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises was 58.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%. The operating rates of various sectors all declined. In the first half of 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity exceeded 200GW, but it slowed down in June. From January to June, the national real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, and various real estate indicators declined [30][32][35]. - Inventory: Last week, the LME aluminum inventory increased to 469,500 tons. On August 1, the SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 1,737 tons to 117,500 tons. As of August 7, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 549,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from Monday. The inventory is still at a relatively low level, and the exchange warehouse receipt inventory has dropped to around 43,000 tons, supporting the aluminum price [37][40]. - Aluminum Premium: On August 7, the Shanghai Wumei aluminum average price premium was - 60 yuan/ton, with an expanded premium range; the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium was 0.65 US dollars/ton, with a narrowed premium range [42]. - Waste Aluminum and Aluminum Alloys: The import of waste aluminum in China may decrease month - on - month in August. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy production capacity increased compared with last week, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy production capacity remained flat compared with last week. As of August 8, the weekly social inventory of aluminum alloys increased by 24,000 tons to 48,400 tons, and the in - factory inventory decreased by 33,000 tons to 60,700 tons [45][47][51]. 3.4后市研判 - The peak demand season of "Golden September and Silver October" is coming, and the subsequent consumption expectation is not overly pessimistic. The 60 - day moving average of 20,400 provides support for Shanghai Aluminum [55].