铜产业链周度报告-20250808

Report Summary - The short - term copper price is expected to remain volatile, with support at 77,000 [5][46] - The US employment data has weakened, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has increased again, which is helpful for boosting the copper price [8][9] - The domestic short - term market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode, waiting for verification during the peak season [11][12] Multi - empty Focus Bullish Factors - The weakening of US employment data has led to a re - warming of interest - rate cut expectations, with the probability of a rate cut in September priced in the interest - rate futures market reaching as high as 91%, which is beneficial for copper prices [8][9] - The growth of new energy vehicle production and sales and exports, as well as the high - speed growth in the power sector, will drive copper consumption. From January to June, China's new energy vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% year - on - year respectively, and exports increased by 75.2%. As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity increased by 18% year - on - year, and solar power generation increased by 54.2% [30][31][37] - The narrowing of the refined - scrap copper price difference is conducive to refined copper consumption. As of August 7, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around - 1,340 yuan/ton [26] Bearish Factors - The global and Asian manufacturing PMIs declined in July. The global manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [12] - The real - estate copper demand remains weak. From January to June, real - estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, and new housing starts decreased by 20.0% [34] - The household appliance production schedule in August still shows a year - on - year decline, although the decline is expected to narrow. The combined production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August decreased by 4.9% year - on - year [40] Data Analysis Supply - side Data - China's copper ore concentrate imports in July were stable. The import volume in July was 2.56 million tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to July was 17.314 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0% [15] - The output of electrolytic copper remains at a high level. In July, the output of SMM China electrolytic copper increased by 39,400 tons month - on - month, a rise of 3.47% and a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. SMM expects a slight decline in domestic refined copper output in August [21] - China's scrap copper imports in June decreased slightly. The import volume was 183,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% but a year - on - year increase of 8.49% [24] Demand - side Data - The new photovoltaic installed capacity declined in June, but the power sector showed high - speed growth. As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18%, and solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2% [30][31] - The real - estate copper demand remains weak. From January to June, real - estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, and new housing starts decreased by 20.0% [34] - The automobile industry maintains high prosperity. From January to June, automobile production and sales increased by 12.5% and 11.4% year - on - year respectively, and new energy vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% year - on - year respectively [37] - The household appliance production schedule in August still shows a year - on - year decline, although the decline is expected to narrow. The combined production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August decreased by 4.9% year - on - year [40] Inventory Data - Copper inventories in various locations have increased. LME copper inventory reached 156,000 tons, SHFE copper inventory reached 72,543 tons, COMEX copper inventory reached 263,296 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on August 7 was 133,300 tons [42] Price Data - The domestic copper spot premium has decreased, and the foreign premium or discount has increased. On August 7, the spot premium of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper was around 65 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount was around - 65.63 US dollars/ton [44] Future Market Judgment - The short - term copper price is expected to remain volatile, with support at 77,000. The market needs to pay attention to the impact of factors such as US interest - rate policies, domestic economic recovery, and supply - demand changes in the copper market [5][46]