Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-08 11:04Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyethylene (PE) futures main contract oscillated within a range this week due to the tug - of - war between weak supply - demand and rising coal costs. The L2509 contract closed at 7,290 yuan/ton on August 8, 2025, down 0.37% from last week's close. - In terms of fundamentals, supply increased as multiple plants restarted, with PE production rising 3.89% to 660,200 tons and capacity utilization up 3.75% to 85.72%. Demand saw a slight improvement, with the average downstream operating rate up 0.4%. Inventory increased, but the overall inventory pressure was not significant. - Looking ahead, the next round of intensive maintenance for domestic PE is expected to start on August 15. Next week, more plants will restart, and production and capacity utilization are expected to rise. Due to the leap June, the demand for domestic greenhouse films is delayed, extending the off - season for downstream industries. The international oil price is expected to oscillate. The L2509 contract is expected to oscillate slightly in the 7,200 - 7,400 range, while the L2601 contract still faces pressure, with technical support around 7,200 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - Price: The PE futures main contract oscillated in the range of 7,251 - 7,344 yuan/ton. The L2509 contract closed at 7,290 yuan/ton, down 0.37% from last week [7]. - Fundamentals: - Supply: Multiple plants restarted, PE production rose 3.89% to 660,200 tons, and capacity utilization increased 3.75% to 85.72% [7]. - Demand: The average downstream operating rate increased 0.4%, with the agricultural film operating rate up 0.4% [7]. - Inventory: Production enterprise inventory increased 19.09% to 515,400 tons, and social inventory rose 2.49% to 575,700 tons [7]. - Cost and Profit: The cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased 2.04% to 7,702 yuan/ton, and the profit increased 139 yuan/ton to - 352 yuan/ton. The cost of coal - based LLDPE increased 2.50% to 6,243 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased 206 yuan/ton to 989 yuan/ton [7]. - Outlook: The next round of intensive maintenance is expected to start on August 15. Next week, more plants will restart, and production and capacity utilization are expected to rise. The demand for greenhouse films is delayed, and the international oil price is expected to oscillate. The L2509 contract is expected to oscillate slightly in the 7,200 - 7,400 range, while the L2601 contract still faces pressure [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price and Volume: The PE futures main contract oscillated, and trading volume decreased [9]. - Open Interest and Warehouse Receipts: As the delivery month approached, the open interest of the 09 contract decreased, and the number of registered warehouse receipts remained stable [14]. - Calendar Spreads: The 9 - 1 spread weakened slightly, the 1 - 5 spread oscillated slightly, the 5 - 9 spread strengthened slightly, and the L - PP spread strengthened slightly [20][27]. 3.3 Spot Market - Prices: Domestic LLDPE prices ranged from 7,270 - 7,480 yuan/ton, and the CFR China quote was 856 US dollars/ton [33]. - Basis: The futures market was at a discount, and the basis weakened [38]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Ethylene Price: The RMB price of ethylene remained stable this week [42]. - Ethylene Production and Imports: In June, ethylene production decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [45]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Supply: In July, PE production was 2.726 million tons, an increase from the previous month. This week, PE capacity utilization increased [49][54]. - Cost and Profit: The cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased, while the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased. The profit of oil - based LLDPE increased, and the profit of coal - based LLDPE decreased. The import profit of LLDPE fluctuated slightly, and the import window was open [59][64][69]. - Inventory: PE inventory increased this week, but the inventory pressure was not significant [74]. 3.6 Downstream Demand - Prices: The prices of PE downstream products remained stable [77]. - Operating Rates and Production: The average downstream operating rate increased 0.4% this week. From January to June 2025, the cumulative production of plastic products increased 5.0% year - on - year. The operating rates of agricultural film, pipes, and packaging film all increased. From January to June 2025, the export value of plastic products decreased 1.30% year - on - year [80][86][91]. 3.7 Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PE was 12.30%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 12.61% [95].