观望情绪增加，煤焦高位震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Coke: This week, the fifth round of coke price increases was implemented, with the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at ports rising by a total of 250 yuan/ton. After a phased correction at the end of July, the coke futures rebounded strongly in the first week of August. With the reduction of macro uncertainties, the market logic has returned to industry anti - involution policies and the commodity's fundamentals. Overall, this week, coke supply and demand remained stable. Considering the repeated supply disruptions of coking coal and the approaching peak seasons (Golden September and Silver October), the market sentiment is still optimistic, driving the coke futures to fluctuate strongly [3][28]. - Coking Coal: The impact of the coal industry's anti - involution policy is still fermenting. High - frequency data this week showed a decline in domestic coking coal production, supporting the coking coal futures to maintain a strong trend. In the spot market, the domestic coking coal market stabilized this week, and the price of Mongolian coal did not strengthen again after last week's high - level correction, increasing market wait - and - see sentiment. Overall, this week, coking coal supply contracted and demand increased slightly, with marginal improvement in fundamentals. The key lies in whether the anti - involution campaign will have a long - term and significant impact on coking coal supply. Considering that the supply contraction expectation has not been falsified in the short term, coking coal futures are expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend [3][28]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - The US "reciprocal tariff" took effect on the 7th, and many countries strongly oppose it. Although the US has reached trade agreements with multiple countries, there are still many uncertainties in implementation [6]. - On August 8th, the online auction of coking coal by Mongolia's ETT Company had all 128,000 tons of 1/3 coking raw coal with specific specifications (A18.5, V33, S1.1, G70, Mt4.0) at a starting price of $73.4/ton (ex - tax) end in failure. The supply location is the Ganqimaodu Port supervision area in China, and the final supply date is September 30, 2025 [7]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Quasi - first - grade Flat - price) | 1,470 | +3.52% | +3.52% | - 13.02% | - 24.23% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Quasi - first - grade Out - of - warehouse) | 1,440 | +1.41% | +2.86% | - 11.11% | - 19.10% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1,150 | - 0.86% | 0.00% | - 2.54% | - 20.69% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - produced) | 1,540 | +0.65% | +3.36% | +3.36% | - 22.22% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced) | 1,650 | 0.00% | 0.00% | +7.84% | - 13.16% | [8] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,653.5 | - 0.27 | 1,666.0 | 1,631.0 | 16,588 | - 9,039 | 19,408 | - 2,502 | | Coking Coal | | 1,227.0 | +0.49 | 1,237.5 | 1,202.0 | 2,099,880 | | 660,256 | +10,835 | [11] Related Charts - There are multiple charts showing the inventory of coke (230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, ports, and total inventory), coking coal (mine mouth, ports, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants), as well as other production and procurement - related data such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, steel mill production, wash - coal plant production, and coking plant operation [12][16][22] Market Outlook - Coke: The fifth - round price increase was implemented this week, and the futures are expected to fluctuate strongly due to stable supply - demand, coking coal supply disruptions, and approaching peak seasons [3][28]. - Coking Coal: The anti - involution policy has led to supply contraction and marginal improvement in fundamentals. The futures are expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend as the supply contraction expectation has not been falsified in the short term [3][28].