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宝城期货有色日报-20250808
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-08-08 11:13

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper: The Shanghai copper futures showed a moderately strong and volatile trend today, with a slight increase in open interest. Overseas interest - rate cut expectations are rising, and the US dollar index remains weak, which is favorable for copper prices. On the industrial side, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory on Thursday was 133,300 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last week. SMM reported that downstream purchasing sentiment slightly improved on Friday due to downstream stocking demand. With a strong domestic and weak overseas macro - environment and an industrial off - season, copper prices are expected to fluctuate moderately strongly [3]. - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum futures showed a narrow - range volatile trend today, with a slight decrease in open interest. The domestic atmosphere has warmed up this week, and as aluminum has a strong domestic pricing power, its price has risen significantly. On the industrial side, it is the downstream off - season, and both electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods are showing inventory accumulation. After the macro - environment pushes up the aluminum price, attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the previous high [4]. - Nickel: Nickel prices rebounded after hitting a low during the day and generally maintained a volatile trend, with little change in open interest. The domestic atmosphere has been good recently, leading to a stronger nickel price, and the willingness of previous short - sellers to close their positions is relatively strong. In the short term, the industrial impact is small, and continuous attention should be paid to domestic macro - trends. The futures price is expected to fluctuate moderately strongly, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the 122,000 mark [5]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: On August 8th, SMM reported that the copper concentrate inventory at SMM's nine ports was 619,600 physical tons, an increase of 98,000 physical tons from the previous period. The main increase came from Qinzhou Port, where the copper concentrate inventory increased by 70,000 physical tons week - on - week [7]. - Aluminum: On August 8th, according to SMM statistics, the total daily social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi was 31,091 tons, a decrease of 632 tons from the previous trading day and a decrease of 363 tons from last Friday (August 1st) [7]. - Nickel: On August 8th, the main reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2509 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,090 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +500 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,390 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +3,300 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,190 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was +2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,440 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Related Charts - Copper: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [9][11][12]. - Aluminum: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, aluminum monthly spread, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [22][24][26]. - Nickel: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [34][37][38].