Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-08 11:12Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of the FOMC cutting interest rates in September has significantly increased. The sharp weakening of the employment market may be an indicator of future economic data deterioration. The Fed is likely to start an interest rate cut window from September, which is a potential positive factor for the precious metals market [7]. - In the short - term, the precious metals market may face phased adjustment pressure. In the long - term, factors such as inflation rebound risk, the Fed's loose policy expectations, damaged dollar credit, and resilient gold investment demand support the upward movement of the gold price center [7]. - The silver price has rebounded strongly recently. The tight supply - demand pattern and financial attributes provide bottom support, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and domestic measures may boost its industrial attributes. There is still room for the gold - silver ratio to repair [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and make long - term low - level layouts. Specific price ranges for futures contracts are provided [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The July non - farm payroll data was far below market expectations. High - interest rates, tariff risks, and weak PMI indices have had a negative impact on the labor market. The US has increased tariffs on India and plans to impose about 100% tariffs on imported chips, with the average tariff rate rising from 2.3% to 15.2%. Some FOMC officials have signaled interest rate cuts, but Powell maintains a neutral - hawkish stance [7]. - Market Outlook: The probability of an FOMC interest rate cut in September has increased. Although there is still an inflation risk, the weak employment market may prompt the Fed to cut rates from September. In the short - term, the precious metals market may face adjustment pressure, while in the long - term, there are supportive factors [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Price Movements: As of August 8, 2025, COMEX silver rose 3.96% to $38.645 per ounce, and COMEX gold rose 2.48% to $3499 per ounce. The Shanghai silver main contract 2510 fell 4.04% to 9278 yuan per kilogram, and the Shanghai gold main contract 2510 rose 2.22% to 787.80 yuan per gram [10]. - ETF Holdings: As of August 7, 2025, the SLV silver ETF's holdings increased 0.3% to 15112 tons, and the SPDR gold ETF's holdings increased 0.5% to 959.09 tons [14]. - Speculative Net Positions: As of July 29, 2025, COMEX gold and silver speculative net positions decreased, with gold's total and net positions falling 9.02% and 11.64% respectively, and silver's total and net positions falling 1.93% and 2.00% respectively [19]. - CFTC Positions: As of July 29, 2025, both long and short positions of COMEX gold in CFTC increased week - on - week, with the net long position increasing [20]. - Basis: As of August 7, 2025, the gold basis strengthened, rising 15.25% to - 3 yuan per gram, and the silver basis weakened, falling 13.33% to - 34 yuan per kilogram [28]. - Inventory: As of August 7, 2025, COMEX gold and silver inventories increased, while SHFE inventories showed a differentiated trend. COMEX gold inventory was almost unchanged, SHFE gold inventory increased 18.13%, COMEX silver inventory increased 0.80%, and SHFE silver inventory decreased 0.30% [33]. 3. Industrial Supply and Demand Situation - Silver Industry: As of June 2025, China's silver imports decreased slightly by 0.14%, and silver ore imports decreased significantly by 7.51%. Due to the surge in semiconductor silver demand, the growth rate of integrated circuit production continued to rise [35][39]. - Silver Supply and Demand: In 2024, silver industrial demand increased by 4%, coin and net bar demand decreased by 22%, and ETF net investment demand increased from - 37.6 million ounces to 61.6 million ounces. The total demand decreased by 3%. The supply - demand gap has been narrowing year by year [47][51]. - Gold Industry: As of August 7, 2025, the gold recycling price showed a slight decline, while gold jewelry prices generally increased with the rise of the gold price [53][55]. - Gold Supply and Demand: In 2025 Q2, the investment demand for gold ETFs declined slightly. Central bank gold purchases slowed down, and the high gold price led to a marginal decline in gold jewelry manufacturing demand [57]. 4. Macroeconomic and Options - Macroeconomic Data: The non - farm payroll data was weak, the US dollar index and 10 - year US Treasury yields declined this week. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread narrowed slightly, the CBOE gold volatility increased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio decreased. The 10 - year US break - even inflation rate declined, and in July 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 1.86 tons [61][65][69][73].