Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-08 11:12Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures price of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) fluctuated. The main contract EC2510 rose 0.27%, while other contracts had gains ranging from -1% to 4%. The latest SCFIS Europe Line settlement freight rate index was 2,297.86, down 18.7 points from last week, a 0.8% decrease [6][44]. - Trump's tariff measures have intensified global trade uncertainties and raised market expectations of a resurgence in trade conflicts. The US consumer sector shows resilience, but there is an upward risk of inflation in the future. The Q2 2025 GDP growth of the Eurozone slightly exceeded market expectations, and the ECB has more flexibility in its interest - rate policy [6][44]. - From July to August, the traditional peak season for European routes has led to an increase in delivery volume. The recovery of cargo volume has offset some market concerns, and the complexity of the geopolitical situation has postponed the resumption of Red Sea voyages, pushing up the freight rates on European routes. However, freight and industry profitability may be under pressure, and the peak season may be "not so peaky" with freight rates expected to fluctuate weakly [7][45]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Futures contracts: EC2508 fell 2.08%, EC2510 rose 0.27%, EC2512 rose 4.27%, EC2602 rose 3.00%, EC2604 rose 1.74%, and EC2606 rose 1.42%. The SCFIS index fell 0.8% [10]. - The price of the main contract of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) rose slightly this week, and the trading volume and open interest of the EC2510 contract both increased [13][18] 2. News Review and Analysis - In July, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 3.91 trillion yuan, a 6.7% year - on - year increase. Exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, up 8%, and imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, up 4.8%. In the first seven months, the total import and export value was 25.7 trillion yuan, a 3.5% year - on - year increase [21]. - Trump criticized Powell for late interest - rate cuts, may soon announce a new Fed chairman, and plans to raise tariffs on India, chips, and semiconductors. The US - Japan trade agreement has ongoing disputes, and the US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff [21] 3. Chart Analysis - This week, the basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) futures contracts converged, and the export container freight rate index declined [27][29]. - Container shipping capacity decreased in the short term. The BDI and BPI rebounded due to geopolitical factors. The average charter price of Panamax ships rebounded rapidly, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar fluctuated [34][38] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The futures price of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) fluctuated this week. Trump's tariff policies have increased trade uncertainties. The US consumer sector shows resilience, but inflation may rise. The Eurozone's economic data is stable, and the ECB has more flexibility in interest - rate policies [44]. - The peak season for European routes from July to August has led to an increase in delivery volume, but freight and industry profitability may be under pressure, and freight rates are expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to factors such as the actual follow - up increase in shipping companies' cabin opening prices in December, the frequency of Houthi attacks, and trade - war - related information [7][45]