Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-08 11:11Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the soda ash futures declined by 0.08%, and the glass futures dropped by 3.54%. The soda ash futures showed a volatile performance, mainly due to the change in expectations and the market's return to fundamental trading. The glass followed a similar trend to soda ash futures. After the Politburo meeting, the anti - involution sentiment subsided, and policy expectations for the second half of the year changed. The previously hyped upward trend has mostly reversed. Glass is expected to reverse its fundamentals first and may rise after a decline next week to repair emotional trading. Soda ash is expected to have ample supply, falling demand, and continued price pressure, while glass supply and demand are also under pressure, with prices likely to fall overall [6]. - The SA2601 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 1280 - 1350, with stop - loss in the range of 1250 - 1380. The FG2601 is advised to operate in the range of 1140 - 1200, with stop - loss in the range of 1100 - 1250 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: Soda ash futures fell 0.08% this week with volatile performance due to expectation changes and a return to fundamental trading. Glass futures dropped 3.54%, following a similar trend to soda ash. After the Politburo meeting, sentiment and policy expectations changed, reversing the previous upward trend. Glass may reverse fundamentals first and rise after a decline next week [6]. - Market Outlook: For soda ash, supply is ample with rising domestic production and开工率. Profits are falling, which may reduce output. Natural alkali methods will replace outdated capacity. Demand from the glass industry shows signs of recovery but remains at a low level. Inventory is rising, and the de - stocking process will be uneven. Overall, supply will remain ample, demand will decline, and prices will be under pressure. For glass, supply and demand are both under pressure, with supply expected to increase slightly next week. The real - estate situation is not optimistic, and prices are likely to fall overall [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: Soda ash futures declined by 0.08% this week, and glass futures dropped by 3.54% [6]. - Spot Prices: As of August 7, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1340 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 95 yuan/ton. The price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1104 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 80 yuan/ton [14][18]. - Basis: As of August 7, 2025, the soda ash basis was - 97 yuan/ton, and the glass basis was 28 yuan/ton. The soda ash basis continued to weaken, and the glass basis also weakened [14][18]. - Price Spread: As of August 7, 2025, the glass - soda ash price spread was 281 yuan/ton. The soda ash - glass price spread strengthened this week and is expected to continue strengthening next week [20][22]. 3. Industry Chain Analysis - Soda Ash Production: As of August 7, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 85.16%, a week - on - week increase of 5.13%, and the weekly output was 74.46 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.4% [28]. - Profitability: As of August 7, 2025, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton soda ash by the combined soda process was 65 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda process was 45 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 36 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 150.36 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; using coal - made gas as fuel was 111.05 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 19.61%; using petroleum coke as fuel was 130.57 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.18% [33]. - Glass Production: As of August 7, 2025, there were 296 domestic glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), with 223 in operation and 73 cold - repaired. The national float glass output was 111.17 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16%, and is expected to remain low next week [37]. - Photovoltaic Glass: As of August 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic glass enterprises was 66.76%, unchanged from the previous week, and the daily melting volume was 86,500 tons/day, unchanged from the previous week, and is expected to remain at a low level next week [41]. - Inventory: As of August 7, 2025, the inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises was 186.51 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.93%. The total glass inventory was 61.847 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 3.95%, and is expected to continue de - stocking [47]. - Downstream Demand: As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.55 days, showing a slight recovery but still at a low level [51].