Report Summary - The retail sales of the national passenger car market in July were 1.826 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 12.4%. The cumulative retail sales since this year were 12.728 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. The market showed a high-base deceleration feature and followed a "low at the beginning, high in the middle, and flat at the end" trend [5]. - The rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased slightly compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, high-precipitation areas were mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar and sporadic areas in southern Cambodia, while precipitation in most other areas was low, which had a greater impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, high-precipitation areas were mainly distributed in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and rainfall in most other areas was at a medium level, which had a weaker impact on rubber tapping [5]. - The global manufacturing purchasing managers' index in July was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The resilience of the global manufacturing industry weakened compared with the previous month and continued to operate weakly [5]. - In July 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 634,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.84% and a year-on-year increase of 3.43%. The cumulative imports from January to July were 4.709 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 20.77% [5]. - The price of natural rubber raw materials remained stable. The supply-demand structure of natural rubber was relatively loose. The price of butadiene, the raw material for butadiene rubber, fluctuated within a narrow range. The inventory of butadiene rubber plants increased slightly. The operating rate of tire enterprises remained stable [5]. - This week, the rubber futures market maintained a volatile trend. As the premium of macro sentiment faded and the internal contradictions in the fundamentals were not obvious, there was no clear trend guidance and the amplitude narrowed. The overall rubber demand had support at the bottom but faced pressure at the top. The cost support of rubber remained stable. The inventory pressure was greater than that of the same period last year but the increase was relatively limited. Overall, the fundamentals of rubber were moderately weak, mainly due to the expectation of increased supply in the future. With overseas tariffs in effect, there was no obvious increase in tire demand. The weak expectation made it difficult for prices to break through the upside, and prices continued to fluctuate within a range. External macro disturbances were likely to widen the price fluctuation range [5]. Multi-Empty Focus Bullish Factors - The "anti-involution" related industry bill in China provided policy guidance for prices [8]. - The inventory structure of all-steel tire enterprises improved and the operating rate was good [8]. Bearish Factors - The inventory reduction of semi-steel tires was not obvious [8]. - Rubber imports increased [8]. - Global manufacturing data was weak [8]. Data Analysis Natural Rubber Raw Material Prices - As of August 7, the price of fresh latex in Thailand was 54 Thai baht per kilogram; the price of cup lump was 48.3 Thai baht per kilogram; the price of latex in Yunnan, China was 14,000 yuan per ton; and the price of latex in Hainan was 13,100 yuan per ton. This week, raw material prices showed little fluctuation. The impact of weather in the main rubber producing areas weakened, and prices remained stable in the short term. Cost support remained stable [9]. Natural Rubber Supply-Demand Structure - As of August 1, the spot inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 75,472 tons, continuing the destocking trend since mid-May and increasing by 13,730 tons compared with the same period last year. The spot inventory of general trade was 556,298 tons, showing a slow inventory accumulation trend since the beginning of the year and increasing by 142,534 tons compared with the same period last year. The third-party inventory in China was 1,288,849 tons, fluctuating within a narrow range this year and increasing by 73,929 tons compared with last year. Overall, the rubber supply-demand structure this year was relatively loose [12]. Butadiene Price for Butadiene Rubber - This week, the domestic butadiene market showed a slight upward trend with limited increase. Although there were sporadic plant restarts during the week, there were plant overhauls in Shandong and South China, resulting in a decline in production. At the same time, the restarted plant in Shandong had no spot for external sales, and the commissioning of new产能 in the Northeast was postponed. The supply did not increase as expected, which supported the positive sentiment of merchants. Recently, the operating rates of downstream industries were acceptable, and the phased buying boosted the trading volume. The suppliers of butadiene raised prices, driving the market to rise slightly. However, due to the impact of the downstream product trends, the market increase was limited. As of the week of August 8, 2025, the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 406.2857 yuan per ton. The price of butadiene rubber was weak and the corporate profits were under pressure [13]. Butadiene Rubber Inventory - As of the week of August 8, the inventory of butadiene rubber plants was 24,150 tons, an increase of 350 tons from last week. The inventory of traders was 7,290 tons, a decrease of 230 tons from last week. This week, traders reduced inventory slightly while plant inventory increased. The overall inventory structure was loose [15]. Tire Enterprise Operating Rates - As of the week of August 8, the capacity utilization rate of all-steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, a month-on-month increase of 0.80% and a year-on-year increase of 0.73%. The average inventory turnover days of sample enterprises were 39.37 days, a month-on-month decrease of 0.08 days and a year-on-year decrease of 3.66 days. The inventory pressure of all-steel tire enterprises was alleviated and the operating rate remained stable. The capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.27% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.93%. The average inventory turnover days of sample enterprises were 46.45 days, a month-on-month increase of 0.81 days and a year-on-year increase of 9.50 days. The inventory reduction of semi-steel tire enterprises remained difficult, which restricted the enthusiasm of enterprises to start production [17]. Futures Contract Spreads - As of August 7, the spread of the September "RU - NR" contract showed a strong volatile trend; the spread of the September "NR - BR" contract fluctuated within a range [19]. Market Outlook - From the perspective of the downstream tire demand for rubber, the export performance of all-steel tires has been excellent this year, which has reduced the inventory accumulation pressure in factories and boosted the operating rate of enterprises. However, the slow inventory reduction of semi-steel tire enterprises has suppressed the recovery of the operating rate. Overall, rubber demand has support at the bottom but faces pressure at the top. - The impact of weather in the main rubber producing areas has weakened, and raw material prices have remained stable in the short term, providing stable cost support. - As overseas supply recovers, rubber imports continue to increase. The inventory pressure is greater than that of the same period last year, but the increase is relatively limited. - Overall, the fundamentals of rubber are moderately weak, mainly due to the expectation of increased supply in the future. With overseas tariffs in effect, there is no obvious increase in tire demand. The weak expectation makes it difficult for prices to break through the upside, and prices will continue to fluctuate within a range. External macro disturbances are likely to widen the price fluctuation range [23].
中航期货橡胶周度报告-20250808
Zhong Hang Qi Huo·2025-08-08 11:08