豆粕生猪：美豆出口利好，豆粕期现跟涨

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The CBOT soybean is expected to maintain a wide - range bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic DCE soybean meal may have a limited rebound due to high inventory, with the M01 contract expected to be strong. The spot price of soybean meal is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, and the basis will gradually strengthen in the long - term. [19][20] - For live hogs, short - term prices are dominated by the slaughter rhythm, with fluctuations. The supply may first decrease and then increase, and the price is expected to oscillate slightly weaker. [20][21] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract rose 0.46% to 3045 yuan/ton, with coastal oil mills' quotes down 10 - 30 yuan/ton in some areas. The DCE live hog main 2509 contract rose 0.43% to 13930 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of live hogs decreased. The CBOT soybean main contract rose 0.94%. [1][2] 3.2 Main Production Area Weather - The US Midwest planting belt will have rain this week, with favorable weather conditions. There will be scattered showers from Tuesday to Saturday, and the temperature will change from near - normal to above - normal. The growth conditions of corn and soybeans are favorable. [3][4] 3.3 Macroeconomic and Industry News - US soybean exports increased significantly. As of July 31, 2025, the net sales of 2024/25 US soybeans increased by 71% week - on - week and 63% compared to the four - week average. The 2025/26 net sales also exceeded expectations. [5] - The import cost of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans increased on August 8. [5] - On August 7, the domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal trading volume shrank, with spot volume up and basis volume down. [5] - As of August 5, only 3% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 5% the previous week. [5] - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to grow at the slowest pace in nearly 20 years, with an increase of 1.43%. The production is expected to be 1.6656 billion tons, lower than the previous year. [6] - Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn exports in August are expected to be 815, 174, and 758 million tons respectively. [6] - China imported 1167 million tons of soybeans in July, down 4.8% from June but the highest for the same period in history, with the first - seven - month total up 4.6% year - on - year. The market expects imports in August and September to remain above 1000 million tons, but there are concerns about the fourth - quarter supply. [7] - On August 7, the slaughter enterprises' operating rate was 26.94%, up 0.11 percentage points week - on - week. [7] - The US initial jobless claims last week were 226,000, slightly higher than expected. [7] - China's foreign exchange reserves at the end of July were 3292.2 billion US dollars, down 0.76%. The gold reserves increased by 600,000 ounces. [8] 3.4 Data Charts The report provides charts on prices, basis, and inventories of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and live hogs, as well as China's soybean and soybean meal inventories. [11][13][17][18] 3.5 Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, the CBOT soybean rebounds from a four - month low but may be limited by potential high yields. The domestic DCE soybean meal is affected by high inventory, with the M01 contract expected to be strong. The spot price is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, and the basis will strengthen in the long - term. [19][20] - For live hogs, short - term prices are affected by the slaughter rhythm. Supply may first decrease and then increase, and the price is expected to oscillate slightly weaker. [20][21]