燃料油产业数据月报-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - As the number of refinery maintenance continues to decrease, the global fuel oil production has increased month - on - month. The export volume of high - sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East has rapidly recovered, and the global high - sulfur supply will gradually shift to a loose pattern. However, the significant decrease in Brazil's export volume has provided some support for the global low - sulfur market [7]. - In the bunker market, the spread between Bunker and FOB has widened again. The decrease in fuel oil imports and increase in exports in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait may indicate that the power generation demand is gradually coming to an end. In China, fuel oil demand remains low, and the overall processing and bunker demand is weak [7]. - The fuel oil prices around the world have generally declined this month. In the first half of the month, the low - sulfur prices performed relatively strongly, and the low - sulfur cracking in Singapore, Fujairah and other places maintained an upward trend. However, there were obvious signs of weakness in low - sulfur fuel oil in the second half of the month. The increase in supply - side pressure in the near - term has led to a rapid decline in the paper - cargo monthly spreads of fuel oil in various regions [7]. - As previously predicted, with the fading of the impact of geopolitical risk events in June, the trading logic of the fuel oil market has returned to the fundamentals of supply and demand. The increase in refinery operations has led to a gradual recovery in fuel oil production, and the increasing supply pressure is the core factor leading to the decline in prices, cracking spreads, and monthly spreads. August is the turning point between the off - season and peak season of refined oil consumption in the Northern Hemisphere, which means that the seasonal demand benefits will continue to decline this month, further exerting downward pressure on fuel oil valuations [7]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the significant increase in Middle East exports is one of the biggest negative factors. Due to the abundance of spot goods, there were few transactions in the Platts window in August, and it is expected that the weakness of the spot market will continue to suppress prices. In addition to the Middle East, the large - scale maintenance of Russian refineries will end this month, and the export volume from Russia is expected to continue to rise at the end of the month. The entire high - sulfur market may gradually shift from supply - side looseness to a phase of oversupply [7]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, although there has been no obvious increase in Brazil's exports, the export volumes of Kuwait and Indonesia are still rising, and the low - sulfur prices in the Asia - Pacific region have started to weaken month - on - month. In China, the production schedule of major refineries has continued to increase, and the bonded area has continued to accumulate inventory. The slow digestion of port spot goods has led to obvious weakness in the LU futures market. However, as the exports of major refineries increase, the remaining quota will gradually run out. Therefore, the quantity of the next batch of quotas will be a key focus in the future, which will determine the tightness of the deliverable resource supply for LU in the follow - up. Overall, it is believed that the cracking spreads and monthly spreads of high - sulfur fuel oil in August may continue to decline due to negative supply - side factors, and the weakness of low - sulfur fuel oil will also continue. Attention is recommended to the possibility of further narrowing of the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Fuel Oil Spot Prices and Spreads - Price and Spread Fluctuations: The FOB prices of fuel oil in various regions around the world generally declined this month. For example, the FOB price of 3.5% fuel oil in Singapore decreased by 2.29%, and the FOB price of 0.5% fuel oil decreased by 3.40%. The cracking spreads also showed different trends, with the high - sulfur cracking spreads in some regions increasing (e.g., Singapore's high - sulfur cracking spread increased by 16.41%), while the low - sulfur cracking spreads in some regions decreased (e.g., Singapore's low - sulfur cracking spread decreased by 2.00%) [9]. - Regional Price Charts: Provided historical price charts of fuel oil in different regions such as Asia - Pacific, Middle East, Northwest Europe, Mediterranean, and the United States, including FOB and CIF prices of different sulfur - content fuel oils [13][19][26][33]. - Feedstock Market Prices: Presented the FOB and CIF prices of VGO in the European and American markets, such as the FOB price of 0.5% - 0.6% VGO in Northwest Europe and the CIF price of 0.5% VGO barge in the US Gulf [39][43]. - Bunker Prices in Asia - Pacific Ports: Showed the bunker prices of high - sulfur, low - sulfur heavy - fuel oil, and marine diesel in major Asia - Pacific ports, including Singapore, Fujairah, Zhoushan, South Korea, etc. [49][52][56]. - Regional Arbitrage and Grade Spreads: Analyzed the regional arbitrage margins and grade spreads of fuel oil, such as the high - and low - sulfur spread in Singapore, the viscosity spread, and the arbitrage margins between different regions (e.g., Middle East - Singapore, Mediterranean - Singapore) [60]. - Spot Premiums and Discounts: Displayed the spot premiums and discounts in Asia - Pacific and Middle East regions, such as the 380CST transaction premiums and discounts in Singapore and the Arabian Gulf [63]. - Cracking Spreads in Major Markets: Presented the cracking spreads of fuel oil in major global markets, including Asia - Pacific, Middle East, Europe, and the United States [70][77]. - Fuel Oil Swap Market Term Structure: Analyzed the term structure of the fuel oil swap market, including the spreads between different contract months in Singapore and Northwest Europe for high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [83]. 3.2 Global Main Region Fuel Oil Supply Situation - Refinery Operations: Showed the refinery operation rates in different regions around the world, including Northeast Asia (Japan, South Korea, China), Middle East, South Asia, Latin America, Europe, and the United States. For example, the refinery operation rate in Japan, South Korea, and the capacity utilization rates of independent and major refineries in China [91][99][102]. - Refinery Maintenance: Presented the maintenance situation of global major refining units, including CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units [104]. - Production Changes in Main Producing Countries: Displayed the production changes of fuel oil in main producing countries around the world, such as China, India, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Mexico, the United States, Brazil, and Russia [111][113][117]. 3.3 Global Main Region Fuel Oil Demand Situation - Global Fuel Oil Demand Changes: Showed the historical demand changes of fuel oil in different regions around the world, including China, the Middle East, Asia - Pacific, Latin America, the Commonwealth of Independent States, Europe, North America, and Africa [121]. - Singapore Bunker Market Sales: Presented the sales volume of fuel oil in the Singapore bunker market, including the sales volume of high - sulfur, low - sulfur fuel oil, and marine diesel [134]. 3.4 Global High - and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Logistics Situation - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export: Showed the weekly and monthly import and export volumes of high - sulfur fuel oil in different regions around the world, including China, the Middle East, the United States, Singapore + Malaysia, India, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean + Black Sea regions [143][146]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export: Presented the weekly and monthly import and export volumes of low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions around the world, including Singapore + Malaysia, China, the United States, the Mediterranean + Black Sea, Northwest Europe, and the Middle East regions [149][152]. 3.5 Global Main Region Fuel Oil Inventory and Floating Storage Situation - Fuel Oil Spot Inventory: Showed the historical inventory data of fuel oil in major regions around the world, including Singapore, Fujairah, the European ARA region, and the United States. This month, the inventory in Singapore decreased by 0.16%, Fujairah increased by 0.87%, the European ARA region decreased by 3.73%, and the United States decreased by 1.69% [157][159]. - Floating Storage in Singapore: Presented the floating storage situation of fuel oil in the Singapore region [164]. 3.6 Domestic Fuel Oil Market Supply and Consumption Situation - Domestic Production and Supply: Showed the monthly production volume of fuel oil in China, the capacity utilization rate of catalytic units in Shandong refineries, and the monthly commercial volume of fuel oil [169][170][173]. - Bonded Port Supply, Consumption, and Inventory: Presented the total inventory of bonded - area fuel oil, the monthly production volume of low - sulfur fuel oil from Chinese refineries, the port inventories of Dalian, Qingdao, and Zhoushan ports, and the monthly actual consumption volume of marine fuel oil in China [174][175].