光大期货交易内参20250808

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industries is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The stock market's recent rise is driven by long - term expectations of fiscal policy shift to consumption and inflation recovery, mid - term anti - involution policies benefiting upstream cycle sectors, and short - term capital inflows due to RMB appreciation and improved enterprise deposit - loan data. Wait for clearer policy and market trends before adjusting positions [2]. - Short - term treasury bonds are expected to be strong as the market - driving effect of anti - involution policy expectations since July is over, and the bond market is likely to have a repair market [3]. - Gold is in a window supported by both "rising interest - rate cut expectations" and "geopolitical uncertainties" and is expected to maintain a strong trend. For silver, low - buying and holding is a good strategy [4]. - Most commodities in the steel, coal, and coke sectors are expected to move in a narrow or wide - range oscillation in the short term, affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, policy expectations, and cost changes [6][7][9]. - Copper prices may be weak but the expected peak season in September will limit the decline. Nickel and stainless steel prices are affected by market sentiment and will oscillate. Aluminum - related products' prices face downward pressure due to supply increases, while industrial silicon and polysilicon have different trends and investment opportunities [14][15][19]. - Oil prices are under pressure. High and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to oscillate weakly. Asphalt is supported by low supply and inventory but is affected by crude oil price fluctuations. Rubber is expected to oscillate widely. PX, PTA, MEG, methanol, polyolefins, PVC, urea, soda ash, and glass all have their own supply - demand characteristics and are expected to have different short - term price trends [24][25][27]. - Protein meal prices are rising, and a long - position strategy is recommended. Most oils are strong, and a long - position strategy is also suggested. Livestock and poultry products such as pigs and eggs have complex supply - demand situations and are expected to oscillate. Corn has a short - term rebound but a mid - term weakening trend [39][41][42]. - Sugar is expected to continue its weak trend. Cotton's 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term and strengthen in the medium - long term [46][49]. 3. Summary by Category Financials - Stock Index: A - share market was flat yesterday. The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is significant. The stock market's rise is driven by multiple factors. Wait for clearer trends before adjusting positions [2]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury futures rose slightly. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal. Short - term treasury bonds are expected to be strong [3]. - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices rose. Gold is supported by multiple factors, and silver can be held through low - buying [4]. Mineral, Steel, Coal, and Coke - Rebar: Futures prices were slightly down. Production increased, inventory rose, and demand improved slightly. Exports remained high. It is expected to move in a narrow range [6]. - Iron Ore: Futures prices fell. Supply decreased, demand was mixed, and inventory increased. It is expected to oscillate [7][8]. - Coking Coal: Futures prices rose. Supply was affected by inspections, and demand was strong. It is expected to oscillate widely [9]. - Coke: Futures prices rose. Supply was affected，and demand was good. It is expected to oscillate widely [10]. - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: Both futures prices weakened. They are affected by policies, cost, and supply - demand factors and are expected to oscillate widely [11][12]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Prices were slightly down. Affected by macro factors, inventory changes, and weak demand, copper prices may be weak but limited by the peak - season expectation [14]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Prices fell slightly. Affected by inventory, price differentials, and supply - demand, they are expected to oscillate [15]. - Aluminum - related Products: Prices of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy were weak. Supply is expected to increase, and prices face downward pressure [16][18]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon was strong, and polysilicon was weak. There are different investment opportunities [19]. - Lithium Carbonate: Futures prices rose. Supply is expected to increase, demand is improving, and inventory is changing. The market focuses on production uncertainties [20][22]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Prices fell for six consecutive days. Affected by geopolitical events and supply - demand, oil prices are under pressure [24]. - Fuel Oil: Futures prices rose slightly. Supply is sufficient, demand may weaken, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [25][26]. - Asphalt: Futures prices rose slightly. Supply may decrease, demand is expected to improve, and it is expected to oscillate [27]. - Rubber: Futures prices rose. Supply is increasing, demand is stable, and it is expected to oscillate widely [28]. - PX, PTA, MEG: Prices of related products rose slightly. Affected by cost and demand, PTA may be under pressure, and MEG may adjust weakly [29][30]. - Methanol: Prices are expected to oscillate as inventory is expected to increase slightly in August with limited import and stable demand [31]. - Polyolefins: Supply and demand will recover in August, and the upside is limited without significant cost increases [32]. - PVC: Market pressure eases, inventory decreases slowly, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [33][34]. - Urea: Futures prices were weak. Supply increased, demand was weak, and the Indian tender can relieve some pressure. It is expected to oscillate widely and weakly [35]. - Soda Ash: Futures prices oscillated widely. Supply increased, demand was weak, and it is expected to oscillate widely with a weak sentiment [36]. - Glass: Futures prices oscillated widely. Supply was stable, demand was weak, and inventory increased. It is expected to oscillate widely [37]. Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: Prices rose. U.S. soybeans had strong sales, and domestic prices were boosted by external and cost factors. A long - position strategy is recommended [39]. - Oils: BMD palm oil fell, while domestic oils were strong. A long - position strategy is suggested [40][41]. - Livestock and Poultry Products: Pig prices are expected to oscillate due to supply and policy factors. Egg prices have a complex situation with a possible seasonal rebound but a short - term bearish sentiment [42][43]. - Corn: Futures prices rebounded technically, but the mid - term is expected to be weak [44]. Soft Commodities - Sugar: Prices are expected to continue to be weak due to production increase expectations and domestic price adjustments [46]. - Cotton: ICE cotton fell. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term and strengthen in the long term [47][49].