国投期货有色金属日报-20250808

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a certain direction but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term multi/short trend and poor operability on the trading floor, for observation only) [1] - Lead: ☆☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★★☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market shows different trends and investment opportunities for various non - ferrous metals. For each metal, factors such as macro - economy, supply - demand relationship, and inventory levels are considered to make investment suggestions [1][2][3] Summary by Metals Copper - Friday saw Shanghai copper continue to show a fluctuating positive line. The current copper price is 78,530 yuan, with a premium of 120 yuan in Shanghai and a discount of 40 yuan in Guangdong. The copper market trading is dull, and it has basically been operating near the MA60 moving average this week. The market is not strongly affected by the new round of US tariffs and mainly tracks macro - economic indicators. The number of initial jobless claims in the US soared last week. Hold previous short positions [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuates in a narrow range, and the spot discount in East China remains at 50 yuan. Consumption is in the off - season recently, but the output of aluminum rods has increased month - on - month. The peak of aluminum ingot social inventory may appear in August. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot quotation remains flat at 19,800 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor, but it has certain toughness relative to the aluminum price. Pay attention to the possible narrowing of the spread between the spot and AL. The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the balance is in a surplus state. The price of bauxite in Guinea is firm during the rainy season, corresponding to a cost of 3000 - 3100 yuan in Shanxi and Henan in China. Alumina is under pressure to fluctuate, but the downward space is also relatively limited [2] Zinc - The expiration date of the main contract falls in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The expectations of domestic fiscal policy and the Fed's interest rate cut are relatively positive, and there is insufficient resonance between the macro - situation and the fundamental situation of increasing supply and weak demand. The weighted position of Shanghai zinc has dropped to 209,000 lots, and the capital congestion has significantly declined. Fundamentally, it is strong overseas and weak at home. The rebound of LME zinc drives the domestic market, but the downstream's willingness to take delivery at high prices is insufficient. The zinc price rebound is regarded as under pressure. Wait for the opportunity to short - allocate above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - The lead price fluctuates at a low level, and the capital trading is relatively light. It is difficult to purchase waste batteries at low prices, and the recycled lead producers are reluctant to sell due to losses. The refined - scrap price difference is 25 yuan/ton. The downstream's willingness to take delivery is poor, and the rigid demand tends to purchase primary lead with higher cost - effectiveness. There are limited short - term contradictions in the lead market. The overall supply of lead ingots in August is expected to increase month - on - month. Some primary lead smelters have regular maintenance plans from the end of August to the beginning of September. The peak - season consumption still needs to be verified by social inventory. Wait for the evolution of contradictions. Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounds, and the market trading is active. As the domestic anti - involution theme comes to an end, nickel with relatively poor fundamentals will accelerate its return to fundamentals. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2350 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price of high - nickel iron is quoted at 915.6 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price support has significantly weakened recently. In terms of inventory, the nickel - iron inventory remains basically flat at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall level is still high. Pay attention to the signs of the end of de - stocking. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound, and actively intervene in short positions [6] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuates and closes with a negative line at 268,000 yuan, and the current tin price is reported at 268,000 yuan, with a real - time premium of 170 yuan over the delivery month. The overseas tin price is supported by low visible inventory and the decline in Indonesia's production in the first half of the year. In China, pay attention to the changes in high social inventory under the game between the major smelters' maintenance plans and weak consumption. Observe or choose the opportunity for short - term long positions [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounds with increasing volume, and the market trading is active. The price structure shows weakness in the near - term contracts, and the spot price is quoted at 72,000 yuan. The downstream's inquiry behavior is active, and the spot market trading has improved. The total market inventory has slightly decreased to 142,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 3000 tons to 52,000 tons, the downstream inventory has increased by 3000 tons to 46,000 tons, and the trader inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 44,000 tons. The transfer of cargo rights is obvious, and the downstream has increased the intensity of replenishment during the price correction. The latest quotation of Australian ore is 745 US dollars, which has significantly followed the decline of the lithium carbonate price. The smelting output has decreased by 8% week - on - week. After the significant rebound of the lithium carbonate futures price, the game value has decreased. Look for high - level short - selling positions [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon closes slightly higher, and the spot - end manufacturers' quotations remain stable. Currently, the market supply pressure is still significant. It is expected that the output in August will increase by 21,700 - 31,700 tons month - on - month. Among them, the operating rates in Sichuan and Yunnan are continuously increasing, and large - scale factories in Xinjiang also have复产 arrangements. Although both polysilicon and organic silicon downstream have production - increasing expectations, the expected increment is still less than that of industrial silicon. There are still policy expectations, and combined with the large decline in the previous disk, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures touched above 49,000 yuan/ton during the day and then rebounded, closing in the positive territory at the end of the session. In the spot market, the average price of polysilicon multi - product feedstock remains stable at 47,000 yuan/ton (SMM). The upward pressure is large, the downstream component price has decreased, and the terminal still resists high prices. Overall, there are still policy expectations, the spot price increase has slowed down, and the trend may maintain range - bound fluctuations [10]