国投期货农产品日报-20250808

Report Investment Ratings - Buy with Caution: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Live Pigs [1] - Hold: Soybeans, Soybean Meal, Corn [1] - No Clear Rating: Eggs [1] Core Views - The price of Soybean No.1 is fluctuating at a low level, and the price increase faces resistance during the harvest period. The domestic market has uncertainty risks regarding the long - term soybean supply. [2] - Under the unclear Sino - US trade tariff situation, domestic soybean meal is in a continuous shock, and there are no trend trading opportunities for now. [3] - For soybean oil and palm oil, there is a risk of increased price fluctuations in the short term. The long - term view is to buy on dips. [3] - The domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil markets are affected by the rebound of external oilseed futures prices. The market is short - term bullish and awaits the US Department of Agriculture's report and trade negotiation news. [5] - Dalian corn futures are running weakly, and the overall market atmosphere is weak. [6] - The price of live pigs continues to decline, and the futures price is relatively strong. The outlook for the near - term futures price is not optimistic. [7] - The egg futures are increasing in position and falling. The off - season contracts in the second half of this year are relatively weak, and an inverse spread trading strategy is recommended. [8] Section Summaries Soybean No.1 - Today, 32,000 tons of domestic soybeans were auctioned at a reserve price of 4,200 yuan/ton, all of which were unsold. The price of Soybean No.1 is fluctuating at a low level, and the spread between Soybean No.1 and No.2 is narrowing. The price increase faces resistance during the harvest period. The short - term weather in the Northeast is favorable for soybean growth. There is uncertainty about the long - term soybean supply. [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - Due to unclear Sino - US trade tariffs, US new - crop soybeans are difficult to enter the domestic market. Brazilian soybean premiums are rising, and domestic procurement in the fourth quarter is slow. The soybean meal inventory has reached a new high this year. The US soybean has an early high - yield expectation, and the soybean meal market is expected to be volatile. [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - There is a risk of increased price fluctuations in the short term. The market is waiting for the guidance of the US biodiesel policy. The long - term view is to buy on dips. Palm oil may enter a production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter, and there is uncertainty about the long - term soybean oil supply. [3] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil markets are affected by the rebound of external oilseed futures prices. The rapeseed meal performs stronger than rapeseed oil. The market awaits the US Department of Agriculture's report and trade negotiation news. [5] Corn - Dalian corn futures are running weakly. The auction of imported corn by the China National Grain Reserves Corporation has a low transaction rate, and the overall market atmosphere is weak. [6] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs continues to decline, reaching a new low this year. The futures price is relatively strong. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises in August is expected to increase by 6.6% month - on - month. The outlook for the near - term futures price is not optimistic. [7] Eggs - The egg futures are increasing in position and falling. The 12 - month contract has a high premium. The spot price is basically stable. The market should pay attention to the holiday stocking demand and the impact of cold - storage eggs. The off - season contracts in the second half of this year are relatively weak. [8]