农产品日报-20250808

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ (No clear indication of trend, with emphasis on short - term shock) [1] - Soybean Oil: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, but with operational challenges) [1] - Canola Meal: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, but with operational challenges) [1] - Canola Oil: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, but with operational challenges) [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ (No clear indication of trend, with emphasis on short - term shock) [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, but with operational challenges) [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are affected by multiple factors including trade policies, weather, and supply - demand relationships. There is no clear trend in the short - term, and most products are in a state of shock. For long - term investments, factors such as the development of biodiesel policies and seasonal supply - demand changes need to be considered [2][3][5] - Attention should be paid to the weather in domestic soybean - producing areas, policy guidance, the resolution of tariff issues, and the impact of biodiesel policies on the prices of agricultural products [2][3][5] Summaries by Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybean auctions had a total of 32,000 tons with a base price of 4,200 yuan/ton, all of which were unsold. The price of Soybean No. 1 fluctuated at a low level, and the price difference between Soybean No. 1 and No. 2 continued to narrow. There is resistance to price increases during the harvest period. Short - term weather in Northeast China is favorable for soybean growth, and there is uncertainty in the long - term supply of soybeans in the domestic market [2] - In the context of unclear Sino - US trade tariffs, US new - crop soybeans are difficult to enter the domestic market, and domestic soybean meal continues to fluctuate. Brazilian soybean premiums have increased, and domestic procurement in the fourth quarter is slow. The oil mill's crushing rate is stable, and soybean meal inventory has reached a new high for the year. There is an early expectation of a bumper harvest for US soybeans, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate before the tariff issue is resolved [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - In the short - term, there is a need to be cautious about the risk of increased price fluctuations in soybean and palm oil. The market is discussing the US biodiesel policy, and the price spread between foreign and domestic soybean oil is approaching parity. The previous upward trend is likely to turn into a shock. The long - term development trend of biodiesel in the US and Indonesia remains, so a strategy of buying on dips is maintained. Palm oil may enter a production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter, and there is uncertainty in the long - term supply of soybean oil. Attention should be paid to the amplification of market sentiment in the medium - term [3] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices have risen due to the rebound of major overseas oilseed futures prices. Before the release of the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, the rapeseed meal market is expected to be bullish in the short - term. China - Canada economic and trade negotiations have not released new signals, and the downstream of the domestic rapeseed industry continues to destock slowly, so prices are supported but demand expectations may decline [5] Corn - Dalian corn futures continued to be weak. The auction of imported corn by the China National Grain Reserves Corporation had a low transaction rate. Without policy guidance, the domestic corn market is expected to remain weak at the bottom [6] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs continued to fall, reaching a new low for the year, while the futures price was relatively strong. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises in August increased by 6.6% month - on - month. The fourth - quarter slaughter volume is expected to increase, and the near - term futures price is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the production - capacity reduction logic in the long - term [7] Eggs - Egg futures continued to decline with increasing positions. The spot price was basically stable, with slight rebounds in some areas. Attention should be paid to the impact of Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking demand and the release of cold - storage eggs on the spot price. The price in the first half of next year is more supported, and a reverse - spread trading strategy is recommended for the futures market [8]