从上游产业链视角预判基建投资与实物工作量

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the construction industry [2] Core Insights - The construction industry is currently facing pressure in infrastructure and real estate demand, as indicated by various high-frequency indicators such as cement, rebar, and asphalt [4][5] - The report highlights that the current indicators show low levels of cement production, capacity utilization, and prices, suggesting that infrastructure demand remains under pressure [5][20] - Leading construction companies are seen as having attractive price-to-book (PB) valuations, with potential for valuation improvement driven by state-owned enterprise reforms and market management policies [5] Summary by Sections 1. Construction Industry High-Frequency Indicators - High-frequency indicators in the construction industry, including cement, rebar, asphalt, and machinery, indicate the strength of physical workload [16] - Current indicators show that infrastructure demand is under pressure, with many indicators in low prosperity ranges [16][20] - Recent data indicates that cement inventory is at 65.2%, production is at 1.55 billion tons, and average price is at 271.3 yuan, reflecting weak demand [16][18] 2. Cement Indicators - Cement production and capacity utilization are key indicators of construction prosperity, with current annual production at approximately 68.7% of the peak in 2014 [28] - Cement prices have shown a positive correlation with infrastructure investment over the past three years, reflecting demand-side prosperity [34] - A decline in cement production typically indicates pressure on infrastructure investment, with capacity utilization below 60% signaling low prosperity [41][47] 3. Rebar and Steel Indicators - Rebar prices and production are closely linked to infrastructure investment, with current weekly production at 2.11 million tons indicating low prosperity [7][18] - High line prices are positively correlated with real estate investment growth, maintaining a synchronous relationship [7][19] 4. Machinery Indicators - The sales and operating hours of construction machinery, particularly excavators, reflect the intensity of construction activities [4][7] - Current operating hours for medium-sized excavators are at 64.2 hours, indicating low prosperity [18] 5. Asphalt Indicators - Asphalt production and operating rates are indicators of road transport investment trends, with current operating rates at 33.1%, reflecting low prosperity [8][18] 6. Glass Indicators - Glass inventory and prices are closely related to real estate completion rates, with current inventory at 5.178 million heavy boxes indicating high inventory levels [19][20] - The price of glass is currently at 1268.9 yuan, below the improvement threshold, indicating no recovery in the real estate sector [19][20] 7. Profit Forecasts - The report includes profit forecasts for leading companies in the construction sector, reflecting the overall industry outlook [11]