橡胶甲醇原油：偏空情绪主导，原油弱势下行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain a stable and fluctuating trend after a rapid decline, as the bearish sentiment has been fully released, and the futures price has found support at the 40 - and 60 - day moving averages [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend due to the slight decline in domestic coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [4]. - Domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend under the influence of OPEC+ countries' decision to significantly increase production in September, which has increased supply pressure and led to a dominant bearish sentiment [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 3, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 631,800 tons, a decrease of 8,600 tons or 1.35% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.40%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.47%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 1.66 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.12 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 2.01 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.85 percentage points [8]. - As of August 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a slight decrease of 0.27 percentage points week - on - week and a significant decrease of 9.39 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, a slight increase of 0.80 percentage points week - on - week and a significant increase of 7.76 percentage points year - on - year [8]. - In July 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.2%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year - on - year and an increase of 0.6 percentage points month - on - month. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry [9]. - In July 2025, China's logistics prosperity index (LPI) was 50.5%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points month - on - month but still in the expansion range [9]. - In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 83,000 vehicles, a decrease of 15% month - on - month and an increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 80.35%, a slight decrease of 1.57% week - on - week, a slight decrease of 4.85% month - on - month, and a slight increase of 3.09% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.8453 million tons, a significant decrease of 84,900 tons week - on - week, a significant decrease of 141,800 tons month - on - month, and a significant increase of 111,600 tons compared with 1.7337 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 28.66%, a slight increase of 0.11% week - on - week; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.27%, a slight increase of 0.55% week - on - week; the acetic acid operating rate was 86.45%, a slight decrease of 2.34% week - on - week; the MTBE operating rate was 53.91%, a slight decrease of 0.93% week - on - week. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.70%, a slight increase of 0.98 percentage points week - on - week and a slight decrease of 1.69% month - on - month. As of August 8, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 99 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 18 yuan/ton week - on - week and a slight decrease of 25 yuan/ton month - on - month [10]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 803,300 tons, a significant increase of 153,000 tons week - on - week, a significant increase of 235,700 tons month - on - month, and a slight increase of 26,300 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of August 7, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 293,800 tons, a slight decrease of 30,900 tons week - on - week, a significant decrease of 63,100 tons month - on - month, and a significant decrease of 142,100 tons compared with 435,900 tons in the same period last year [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 410, a slight decrease of 5 compared with the previous week and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.284 million barrels, a slight decrease of 30,000 barrels per day week - on - week and a significant decrease of 116,000 barrels per day year - on - year [13]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424 million barrels, a significant decrease of 3.029 million barrels week - on - week and a significant decrease of 5.659 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 23.006 million barrels, a slight increase of 453,000 barrels week - on - week; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 403 million barrels, a slight increase of 235,000 barrels week - on - week. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 96.9%, a slight increase of 1.5 percentage points week - on - week, a slight increase of 2.2 percentage points month - on - month, and a significant increase of 6.4 percentage points year - on - year [13]. - As of July 29, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 156,023 contracts, a slight increase of 2,692 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 49,956 contracts or 24.25% compared with the June average. The average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 249,973 contracts, a significant increase of 22,728 contracts week - on - week and a significant increase of 63,690 contracts or 34.19% compared with the June average [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,400 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | 15,550 yuan/ton | + 25 yuan/ton | - 1,150 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,410 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | 2,383 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | + 27 yuan/ton | + 5 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 466.8 yuan/barrel | + 0.2 yuan/barrel | 489.8 yuan/barrel | - 11.2 yuan/barrel | - 23.0 yuan/barrel | + 11.4 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including rubber basis, 9 - 1 spread, inventory, and tire production rate; methanol basis, 9 - 1 spread, inventory, and olefin production rate; and crude oil basis, inventory, and net position changes [17][30][42]