Guolian Minsheng Securities·2025-08-08 12:21Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the insurance industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the improvement in liability costs for life insurance companies is expected to alleviate the pressure from interest rate differentials, driven by regulatory guidance and market conditions [15][19]. - The report emphasizes the significant decline in the break-even yield for new business value (NBV) and value of in-force (VIF) across various life insurance companies, indicating a trend of improving profitability [10][14]. Summary by Sections Current Liability Costs of Life Insurance Companies - The break-even yield for NBV has marginally decreased for major life insurance companies in 2024, influenced by lower guaranteed rates and improved channel cost efficiency [10][14]. - The NBV break-even yields for major companies in 2024 are as follows: China Life (2.43%), Ping An Life (2.42%), and China Pacific Life (2.60%) [9]. - The VIF break-even yields show a mixed trend, with China Life at 2.44% and Ping An Life at 2.50% in 2024, reflecting varying performance across companies [12][14]. Future Liability Cost Trends - Regulatory initiatives are pushing for a unified commission structure across distribution channels, which is expected to lower channel costs and improve liability costs [25][29]. - The continuous reduction in the guaranteed rates for life insurance products since August 2023 is anticipated to further decrease the liability costs for new and existing policies [29][30]. - Life insurance companies are actively adjusting their product offerings, focusing on dividend products to enhance profitability and reduce fixed liability costs [36][39]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining an "Outperform" rating for the insurance industry, citing improvements in liability costs and potential for enhanced net profit due to favorable investment conditions [45][48]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include China Pacific Insurance, China Life, and Ping An Insurance, based on their strong fundamentals and ability to adapt to market changes [48].