Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: Not clearly defined, represented by "なな女" [1] - Pure Benzene: Not clearly defined, represented by "なな女" [1] - Styrene: Not clearly defined, represented by "女女女" [1] - PX: Not clearly defined, represented by "ななな" [1] - PTA: Represented by "★★★", indicating a more distinct long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Represented by "★☆☆", indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Short Fiber: Represented by "☆☆☆", indicating a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the market [1] - Bottle Chip: Not clearly defined, represented by "女女女" [1] - Methanol: Not clearly defined, represented by "な女女" [1] - Urea: Not clearly defined, represented by "女女女" [1] - PVC: Not clearly defined, represented by "女女女" [1] - Caustic Soda: Represented by "★☆☆", indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Soda Ash: Not clearly defined, represented by "な女女" [1] - Glass: Represented by "☆☆☆", indicating a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the market [1] Core Views - The futures of olefins and polyolefins generally show a weak or range - bound trend. The demand for propylene is in the off - season, and the supply of polyolefins is expected to increase, with varying demand situations [2] - The prices of pure benzene and styrene are affected by weak oil prices. Pure benzene may have a seasonal improvement in the second half of the third quarter and face pressure in the fourth quarter. Styrene's supply is sufficient but demand is weak [3] - PX and PTA prices are weak due to oil prices, and there is a possibility of valuation repair for PTA. Ethylene glycol prices are under pressure from port inventory accumulation. Short - fiber prices follow raw materials, and bottle - chip processing margins are still low [5] - Methanol shows a narrow - range fluctuation, with port inventory accumulation. Urea prices are falling, and the market focuses on export policies [6] - PVC shows an oscillating trend with weak demand and increasing supply. Caustic soda is under long - term supply pressure [7] - Soda ash and glass are in a weak state, with inventory accumulation and weak demand [8] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures: The downstream demand is in the off - season, the supply is relatively abundant, and the price weakness continues [2] - Polyolefins futures: Polyethylene has an expected increase in short - term output, with improving demand. Polypropylene has stable costs, but new orders are insufficient and the purchase enthusiasm is suppressed [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: The oil price is weak, the domestic output increases, the import decreases, and there is a seasonal improvement expectation in the second half of the third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene: The supply is sufficient, the main consumption is slightly increasing, but the downstream procurement intention is low [3] Polyester - PX and PTA: Affected by weak oil prices, the prices are weak, and there is a possibility of PTA valuation repair. The industrial chain profit is expected to transfer from PX to PTA [5] - Ethylene glycol: Affected by port inventory accumulation, the price is oscillating downward [5] - Short fiber: The price follows the raw materials, and there is a positive expectation in the peak season [5] - Bottle chip: The processing margin is still low, and over - capacity is a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The coastal olefin start - up is low, the port inventory accumulates, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term and may change with the approaching peak season [6] - Urea: The market is falling, the demand is in the off - season, the export situation is complex, and the market focuses on export policies [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: The cost support is not obvious, the supply increases, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to be oscillating weakly [7] - Caustic soda: The supply increases, the demand is mixed, the market is accumulating inventory, and the price is under long - term pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash: The industry is accumulating inventory, the supply is high, the demand from the photovoltaic industry is weak, and the price is under pressure but unlikely to break the previous low [8] - Glass: The industry is accumulating inventory, the spot price is falling, the profit and capacity are slightly increasing, and the market is back to real - world trading [8]
国投期货化工日报-20250808
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-08-08 12:38