策略日报：延续震荡调整-20250808

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a prevailing trend of rising stock prices and falling bond prices. The overall monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting the bond market fundamentals and liquidity [17] - The A-share market shows a slight decline with a trading volume of 1.73 trillion, indicating a decrease in market sentiment but still active trading. The index is expected to trend upward, potentially breaking last year's high [20] - The U.S. stock market shows mixed performance, with the Dow Jones down 0.51% and the Nasdaq up 0.35%. Long-term trends suggest that U.S. stocks may outperform non-U.S. markets [24][25] Group 2: Important Policies and News - In July, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.826 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. The retail sales of new energy vehicles also grew by 12% [36] - Shanghai has introduced a social insurance subsidy policy for female employees during maternity leave, covering 50% of the costs for employers [38] - The U.S. has seen a significant policy shift allowing 401K accounts to invest in cryptocurrencies and private equity, marking a historic moment [41] Group 3: Trading Strategies - The bond market is expected to experience fluctuations followed by high-level oscillations, while the A-share market is recommended to adopt a bullish stance, focusing on holding positions [7][20] - The strategy for the U.S. stock market remains bullish in the medium to long term, indicating a continuation of the bull market [8] - In the foreign exchange market, a strategic long position on the U.S. dollar is advised, as shorting the dollar lacks cost-effectiveness [29] Group 4: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index has decreased by 0.2%, but it shows signs of stabilization and recovery. The recommendation is to buy on dips, using the low point from July 10 as support [31]