EBSCN·2025-08-08 13:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a seasonal decline in loan issuance for July, predicting new RMB loans to be less than 100 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 200 billion, resulting in a growth rate around 7% [4][5]. - Social financing (社融) is expected to remain stable in July, with an estimated increase of 1-1.2 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 300-500 billion, and a growth rate of around 9% [13]. - The report highlights a seasonal drop in corporate credit demand, with short-term loans expected to show negative growth, while retail loan growth remains weak due to low consumer leverage willingness [6][7]. Summary by Sections Loan Issuance - In June, loan issuance saw a seasonal peak but was constrained by insufficient demand, with a total of 3.1 trillion in new loans for the second quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 670 billion [4]. - The report predicts that July will see a further decline in loan issuance, with corporate loan demand particularly weak due to economic pressures [6]. Social Financing - The report forecasts that government bond issuance will continue to support social financing growth, with a projected increase of 1.25 trillion in government bonds for July, a year-on-year increase of 566.2 billion [14]. - Direct financing through corporate bonds and other instruments is also expected to show marginal recovery, contributing to the overall social financing growth [13]. Monetary Indicators - M1 growth is expected to remain stable around 4.5%, while M2 growth may see a slight decline to approximately 8.1% due to seasonal factors and shifts in deposit patterns [17]. - The report notes a "see-saw" effect between different types of deposits, impacting the overall monetary growth dynamics [17].