基本面边际好转，铅价或偏强整理

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the lead market will see an increase in both supply and demand, with marginal improvement in fundamentals and strong support from the raw material end. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen, operating in the range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to focus on range - based operations [85]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Lead Market Review: Oscillating Downward - In July, consumption was average, lead prices fell from highs, and the price center shifted down. In the middle and late June, tight lead concentrate and scrap batteries led to reduced supply at the ingot end and rising lead prices. In early July, high lead prices suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and prices stabilized. In mid - July, the traditional peak season underperformed, downstream purchasing did not improve substantially, and inventories accumulated, causing lead prices to fall. After the 07 contract delivery, the slow resumption of primary lead and tight scrap batteries led to a temporary supply shortage, and lead prices stopped falling and rebounded slightly but weakened again at the end of the month [9]. - As of July 31, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,675 yuan/ton, down 1.62% from the end of June and 14.05% from the same period last year; the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 1.04% from the end of June and 13.47% from the end of last year; the closing price of the SHFE lead main contract was 16,735 yuan/ton, down 2.70% from the end of June and 11.01% from the same period last year; the closing price of LME three - month lead (electronic trading) was 1,969.5 US dollars/ton, down 3.53% from the end of June and 6.19% from the same period last year [3][10]. 3.2 Raw Materials & Profits: Strong Cost Support 3.2.1 Primary Lead: Lead Concentrate Remains Tight, TC Drops Slightly - As of July 31, the average price of domestic lead concentrate was 16,175 yuan/ton, down 1.37% from the end of June and 14.19% from the same period last year; the average price of imported lead concentrate was 16,031.29 yuan/ton, down 3.09% from the end of June and 5.71% from the same period last year [25]. - In May 2025, global lead concentrate production was 38.28 tons, up 1.46% month - on - month and down 0.05% year - on - year. From January to May, the cumulative production was 181.11 tons, up 2.51% year - on - year. In July, Xinjiang and Qinghai mines increased production, but domestic lead concentrate was still in short supply due to refineries' preference for domestic ore. In June, domestic lead concentrate production was 15.31 tons, up 2.55% month - on - month and 14.94% year - on - year [27]. - Imported lead concentrate had little bulk cargo, and port inventory was basically zero. As of July 31, the profit of imported lead concentrate was 143.71 yuan/ton. In June, lead concentrate imports were 11.80 tons, up 13.54% month - on - month and 26.90% year - on - year [28]. - Refineries' lead concentrate inventory remained high. As of the end of June, refineries' lead concentrate inventory was 41.70 tons, and the raw material inventory days were 26 days. Due to tight ore supply, lead concentrate processing fees declined, but refinery profits improved due to by - product revenues [39]. - As of July 31, primary lead smelting profit (processing) was 46.8 yuan/ton. As of July 25, domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 500 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee was - 60 US dollars/dry ton. As of July 27, the average sulfuric acid price in East China was 630 yuan/ton, and the average price of No. 1 silver on July 31 was 8,939 yuan/kg [40]. 3.2.2 Recycled Lead: The Peak Scrap Battery Season Didn't Materialize, Scrap Battery Prices Remained Firm - In July, the peak scrap battery season did not arrive. Recyclers adopted a "quick - in, quick - out" model, and prices were firm. However, recycled lead refineries faced cost inversion and were cautious in purchasing, resulting in a stalemate in the scrap battery market. - As of July 31, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton, the comprehensive cost of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was 17,257 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale enterprises was 17,482 yuan/ton. The profit of recycled lead refineries was - 1,174 yuan/ton [43][44]. 3.3 Supply Side: Slight Accumulative Increase 3.3.1 Primary Lead: Slight Decline in Operating Rate - In May 2025, global refined lead production was 111.16 tons, down 0.98% month - on - month and up 3.18% year - on - year. In July in China, primary lead operating rate first declined and then recovered. It is estimated that July production was 32.37 tons, down 1.49% month - on - month and up 5.44% year - on - year [54][55]. 3.3.2 Recycled Lead: Slow Resumption of Operating Rate - Since mid - April, recycled lead operating rate declined due to tight raw materials and weak demand. In July, with the approaching peak season and raw material replenishment, the operating rate slowly recovered. However, high scrap battery prices and weak demand led to light spot trading and increasing finished - product inventory. It is estimated that July production was 25.8 tons, up 13.96% month - on - month and 1.30% year - on - year [60]. 3.4 Demand Side: In the Off - Peak Season 3.4.1 Low Downstream Purchasing in the Consumption Off - Peak Season - In July, the lead - acid battery market was in the transition period between off - peak and peak seasons. Some enterprises planned to stock up, but high inventory levels limited the stocking intensity. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was relatively stable. Electric bicycle battery demand increased, while automobile battery production was based on sales. Due to cost factors, downstream buyers preferred primary lead [68]. 3.4.2 Continuous Closure of the Export Window - In June 2025, lead - acid battery exports were 1,874.46 million units, down 6.69% month - on - month and 20.53% year - on - year. From January to June, cumulative exports were 11,304.30 million units, down 6.61% year - on - year [71]. 3.5 Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance - In July, primary lead production was stable, and recycled lead production increased. Demand entered the peak season, and some downstream enterprises stocked up. Primary lead inventory decreased, while recycled lead inventory increased at the end of the month. Social inventory increased due to high spot - futures spreads. - As of July 31, SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory was 7.30 tons, up 29.66% from the end of June and 72.99% from the same period last year. SHFE lead inventory was 6.33 tons as of July 25, and LME lead inventory was 27.53 tons as of July 31 [75]. 3.6 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In July, market trading was average, and lead prices oscillated downward. In August, lead prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen due to peak - season expectations and raw material issues. - Macroscopically, China's "anti - involution" sentiment still lingers, and the US inflation restricts the Fed's interest - rate cut path. However, the weak employment data in July increased the expectation of a September interest - rate cut, reducing the pressure on non - ferrous metals. The US has reached 10% - 41% tariff rates with more trading partners, and the effective date of reciprocal tariffs has been postponed to August 7. - Fundamentally, raw material issues strongly support lead prices. Lead concentrate remains tight, and scrap battery supply is limited. On the supply side, primary lead refineries will resume production in August, and recycled lead will resume production slowly. On the demand side, it will enter the traditional peak season, but exports may be affected by tariffs [83][84].