2025年7月进出口数据点评：出口对经济支撑有力

Export Performance - In July 2025, China's exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, up from 5.9% in the previous month, exceeding market expectations of 5.8%[1] - The trade surplus for July was $98.245 billion, down from $114.751 billion in the previous month[1] - Exports to non-US countries showed strong growth, particularly to the EU, Australia, Africa, and Latin America, while exports to the US declined by approximately 5.5 percentage points to -21.7%[2] Import Dynamics - Imports in July 2025 rose by 4.1% year-on-year, significantly higher than the previous month's growth of 1.1% and market expectations of 0.3%[1] - The contribution of integrated circuits and high-tech products to overall import growth was approximately 4.3 percentage points[3] - Imports from Africa, Latin America, and India increased, while imports from Europe and the US fell by 2.0 and 3.3 percentage points, respectively, to -1.6% and -18.9%[3] Future Outlook - Export growth is expected to moderate due to high inventory levels and interest rates in the US, which will likely suppress demand[4] - The recent increase in tariffs by the Trump administration on certain countries adds uncertainty to the export environment[4] - Export pressures are anticipated to become more evident by the end of Q3 2025, although the overall slowdown is expected to be manageable[4] Risks - Geopolitical risks may elevate global trade uncertainties, impacting market risk appetite[6] - Unexpected changes in economic conditions or policies could lead to adjustments in related policies, especially given the current economic transition phase domestically[6]