宏观经济周报：美欧降息预期分化，中国出口保持强韧-20250808

Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - US non-farm employment data for July fell short of expectations, with significant downward revisions for May and June, indicating a weakening job market[2] - The unemployment rate is rising, influenced by immigration policies that lower labor participation rates[2] - Forward-looking indicators such as manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI employment components have reached recent lows, reflecting overall economic weakness[2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - The divergence in interest rate expectations between the US and Europe is notable, with US officials expressing concerns about the labor market while maintaining a neutral stance overall[5] - European inflation data shows July CPI growth near central bank targets, reinforcing confidence in keeping policy rates unchanged[5] Group 3: China's Economic Performance - China's export growth has exceeded expectations, supported by low base effects and stable demand from non-US countries, while exports to the US have weakened due to diminishing tariff relief effects[5] - Domestic demand remains uncertain, with imports primarily driven by integrated circuits and high-tech products, while the improvement in bulk commodity imports is largely price-driven[5] Group 4: Policy Developments - Recent government policies, such as the implementation of childcare subsidies and the promotion of free preschool education, aim to alleviate financial pressures on low- and middle-income families and support long-term population development[5] Group 5: Commodity Price Movements - Prices for non-ferrous metals have generally increased, while oil prices have declined, reflecting broader market dynamics[4]