Report Summary - There is no specific investment rating provided for the industry in the report [2] - The core view of the report is that in the aluminum industry, the overall supply and demand situation is complex. The supply side shows different trends in various links such as bauxite, alumina, and electrolytic aluminum, while the demand side is affected by factors like consumption expectations and seasonal patterns. The market is also influenced by macro - economic factors such as the Fed's interest rate expectations and domestic economic data [8][36] Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: The overall fluctuation of power information and the Fed's rate - cut expectation continue to rise, affecting market sentiment. The consumption expectation is not overly pessimistic [8] - Bearish factors: The water - discount range has expanded, and inventory has climbed. The US employment data has weakened, and the inventory has risen [8][9] Data Analysis Bauxite - In June 2025, domestic bauxite production was 5.1933 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 173,100 tons but a year - on - year increase of 203,600 tons. The daily output was 173,100 tons, remaining flat month - on - month. In July, the domestic bauxite market was stable, but rainfall in major producing areas restricted production. The procurement price in Shanxi remained stable [18] - In May, over 40 mining enterprises in Guinea had their mining licenses revoked. However, a mining enterprise resumed production, changing the supply from a tight - balance expectation to an oversupply expectation. In the first half of the year, China's bauxite imports increased by 26.086 million tons year - on - year to 103.403 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 33.74%. The port inventory also increased. Although the subsequent imports may decline due to the rainy season, the price is expected to have limited rebound [22] Alumina - As of late July, the national alumina production capacity was 113.02 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from late June. The operating capacity was 94.95 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons from late June, reaching a new high for the year. The operating rate was 84.01%, a 1.5 - percentage - point increase [25] - In June 2025, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 17.7% but a year - on - year increase of 8.8%. From January to June, the cumulative export was 1.343 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.7%. In June, the import was 101,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50% and a year - on - year increase of 168.4%. From January to June, the cumulative import was 268,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 77.4%. The net export in June was 69,700 tons, and the cumulative net export from January to June was 1.075 million tons. The import volume may increase in the second half of the year [25] Electrolytic Aluminum - The growth space of domestic electrolytic aluminum production is limited. The capacity utilization rate has exceeded 95%. From January to June, the cumulative production was 21.6948 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. In June, the production was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57% but a month - on - month decrease of 3.23% [29] - As of late July, the national electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.232 million tons, a monthly increase of 25,000 tons. The operating capacity was 44.214 million tons, a monthly increase of 55,000 tons, and the operating rate was 97.8% [29] - Electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a profit of over 3,000 yuan per ton in the second half of the year due to limited new capacity, high capacity utilization rate, rigid supply, and low inventory [32] Downstream - In the off - season, downstream demand returns to the rigid - demand rhythm. In July, the average operating rate of aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.7%, a 1.3% month - on - month decline [36] - In the first half of the year, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity exceeded 200GW, but the installation slowed down in June. The new installed capacity in June was 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% [40] - From January to June, the national real estate development investment was 4.6658 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. Other real estate indicators such as construction area, new construction area, and completion area also showed declines [44] Inventory - Last week, LME aluminum inventory rebounded to 469,500 tons. As of the week of August 1, SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 1,737 tons to 117,500 tons [48] - As of August 7, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 549,000 tons, a 2,000 - ton increase from Monday. The inventory is still at a relatively low level, and the exchange warehouse receipt inventory has declined to around 43,000 tons, supporting the aluminum price [52] Price and Import - On August 7, the average price of Shanghai Wumaoh aluminum had a discount of - 60 yuan per ton, with the discount range expanding. The LME aluminum 0 - 3 discount was 0.65 dollars per ton, with the discount range narrowing [56] - China's scrap aluminum imports in August may decrease month - on - month due to intense overseas competition, geopolitical conflicts, and positive domestic refined - scrap aluminum price differences [60] Aluminum Alloys - The production capacity operating rate of China's primary aluminum alloy increased compared to last week, with a daily full - cost production cost of 20,400 yuan per ton [64] - The production capacity operating rate of China's recycled aluminum alloy remained the same as last week. The daily full - cost production cost of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 19,950 yuan per ton, and the profit was negative [68] - As of August 8, China's weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy was 48,400 tons, a 2,400 - ton increase from last week. The in - factory inventory was 60,700 tons, a 3,300 - ton decrease from last week [72] 后市研判 - Aluminum alloy futures prices will follow the upward trend of electrolytic aluminum futures [74] - For SHFE aluminum, the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season is approaching, and the consumption expectation is not overly pessimistic. The 60 - day moving average of 20,400 provides support [77]
中航期货铝产业链周度报告-20250808
Zhong Hang Qi Huo·2025-08-08 13:52