First Shanghai Securities·2025-08-08 07:50Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (388) with a target price of HKD 500.0, representing a potential upside of 15.8% from the previous closing price [5][32]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong financial market is experiencing a robust recovery, with multiple indicators reaching historical highs. The average daily trading volume for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) in the first half of 2025 reached HKD 240.2 billion, a significant increase of 118% year-on-year, marking the highest level since 2010 [3][8]. - The market capitalization of the Hong Kong market increased to HKD 42.7 trillion by the end of June 2025, reflecting a 33% year-on-year growth, driven by the recovery of Chinese mainland economic conditions and the optimization of listing regulations by HKEX [4][15]. - The report highlights the strong performance of various market segments, including a 195% year-on-year increase in the average daily trading volume of the Stock Connect program, indicating a significant rise in participation from mainland investors [10][15]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The average daily trading volume for HKEX reached HKD 240.2 billion in the first half of 2025, up from HKD 110.4 billion in the same period of 2024, marking a 118% increase [8]. - The Stock Connect program's average daily trading volume was HKD 110.96 billion, a 195% increase year-on-year, showcasing enhanced participation from mainland investors [10][15]. - The derivatives market also showed strong growth, with average daily trading volume for futures and options increasing by 11% year-on-year, and the trading volume for RMB currency futures rising by 43% [3][10]. Market Capitalization and New Listings - As of June 30, 2025, the total market capitalization of Hong Kong reached HKD 42.7 trillion, a 33% increase from HKD 32.1 trillion a year earlier [4][15]. - In the first half of 2025, HKEX processed over 200 listing applications, with new stock financing totaling USD 14.1 billion, a staggering 695% increase year-on-year [4][15]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts total revenue for HKEX to reach HKD 26.1 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.7% [7]. - Net profit is projected to be HKD 15.2 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 16.6% [7]. - The report anticipates a diluted earnings per share of HKD 12.0 for 2025, representing a 16.6% increase from the previous year [7]. Regulatory Environment - HKEX announced a series of optimized listing rules effective August 4, 2025, aimed at lowering barriers to entry and enhancing market competitiveness [22]. - The new regulations include reducing the minimum public float requirement from 15% to 10%, which is expected to attract more quality companies to list in Hong Kong [25][22]. Investment Themes - The report emphasizes two main investment themes: growth driven by technology and stable dividend yields from undervalued state-owned enterprises [26][27]. - It highlights opportunities in the AI sector, electric vehicles, and innovative pharmaceuticals, alongside a focus on undervalued state-owned enterprises benefiting from policy support [26][27].