累库趋势难改，期价维持弱势震荡

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The implementation of supply - side contraction policies for alumina still needs observation. Given the low proportion of backward capacity and new production coming online this year, the over - capacity situation of alumina may be difficult to change. With the ebb of short - term commodity buying sentiment and the alleviation of the shortage of circulating spot, it is recommended to take short positions on rallies based on market sentiment. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to warrant registration, supply - side policies, and Guinea's ore policies [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - Futures Price: As of August 8, the alumina index had risen 7.1% since June 30 to 3182 yuan/ton. In mid - and early July, the expectation of supply - side contraction policies, a strong commodity buying atmosphere, and low warrant registration volumes drove the futures price up. As sentiment faded and the spot market loosened, the price dropped due to the oversupply situation [12][23]. - Spot Price: In July, the "anti - involution" policy expectation led to a sharp increase in alumina spot prices. As of August 8, 2025, the spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang were 3325 yuan/ton, 3320 yuan/ton, 3225 yuan/ton, 3215 yuan/ton, 3250 yuan/ton, and 3520 yuan/ton respectively, up 155 yuan/ton, 145 yuan/ton, 135 yuan/ton, 125 yuan/ton, 165 yuan/ton, and 180 yuan/ton from early July [12][20]. - Inventory: As of August 8, the total social inventory of alumina had increased by 28.5 tons to 414.4 million tons. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory had increased by 11.8 tons, 3 tons, 10.5 tons, and 3.2 tons respectively [12][75]. - Comprehensive Analysis: The supply - side contraction policy implementation needs further observation. The over - capacity pattern of alumina may persist. With the ebb of short - term buying sentiment and the alleviation of spot shortages, short positions on rallies are recommended. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [13]. 2. Futures and Spot End - Futures Price: As of August 8, the alumina index rose 7.1% since June 30 to 3182 yuan/ton. The early - July price increase was driven by policy expectations and low warrant registration, while the subsequent decline was due to the return to the fundamental logic of oversupply [23]. - Basis: The basis decreased significantly this month and then gradually recovered. As of August 8, the Shandong spot price was at a premium of 45 yuan/ton over the alumina main contract price [23]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between the first - and third - month contracts first rose and then fell. As of August 8, it was - 12 yuan/ton [23]. 3. Raw Material End - Bauxite Price: Domestic bauxite prices remained flat this month. As of August 8, the CIF price of Guinea bauxite was 74 US dollars/ton, and that of Australian bauxite was 69 US dollars/ton. Due to the impact of the rainy season and previous bans on Guinea's shipments, the arrival volume of imported ores is expected to decline, and ore prices are expected to be supported in the short term [29]. - Bauxite Production and Import: In June 2025, China's bauxite production was 519 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%. The cumulative production in the first six months was 3039 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.29%. In June, bauxite imports were 1812 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.86% and a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. The cumulative imports in the first six months were 10340 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.68% [31][33]. - Guinea Bauxite Import: In June 2025, China imported 1332 tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 40.18% and a month - on - month increase of 0.76%. The cumulative imports in the first six months were 7967 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.49%. Recent low shipments from Guinea may lead to a decline in imports after June, but the annual supply remains in surplus [36]. - Bauxite Supply - Demand Balance: Based on shipping schedules and seasonal shipments from Guinea, the bauxite supply is expected to tighten in July and experience significant inventory reduction in September and October. If the AXIS mining area does not resume production this year, China's bauxite import growth is expected to decline from 4000 tons to 2000 tons. However, due to the large surplus in the first five months and sufficient inventories in most alumina plants, the basic production of alumina enterprises is not expected to be significantly affected [37]. - Bauxite Inventory: As of August 1, 2025, the global bauxite floating inventory reached a new low of 1455 tons. China's bauxite port inventory was 2819 tons, and the inventory accumulation trend slowed down. With the expected decline in ore arrivals, port inventories are expected to decrease [40]. 4. Supply End - Alumina Production: In June 2025, alumina production was 733 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.34% and a month - on - month increase of 3.14%. The cumulative production in the first six months was 4349 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.01% [47]. - Operating Capacity: In June 2025, the operating capacity of alumina was 9000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.36% and a month - on - month increase of 6.38%. The recovery of smelting profits led to the resumption of previously shut - down capacity [50]. - New Production Capacity: In 2025, the total new alumina production capacity is expected to be 1430 tons. Some projects have been put into production and are gradually releasing output, while the fourth - quarter new production has uncertainties [51][52]. - Smelting Profit: Based on the August 8 spot price, the production profit in Guangxi can reach 570 yuan/ton. In Shandong, the profit using Australian and Guinea ores is 395 yuan/ton and 440 yuan/ton respectively. The profit in Shanxi and Henan using Guinea ore is 185 yuan/ton and 235 yuan/ton respectively [54]. 5. Import and Export - Alumina Import and Export Data: In June 2025, alumina had a net export of 6.97 tons, maintaining a net export status. The import volume increased from 6.75 tons in the previous month to 10.13 tons, and the export volume decreased from 20.78 tons to 17.1 tons. The cumulative net export in the first six months was 107.5 tons. A small net export is expected to become the norm [58]. - Import Window: As of August 8, the FOB price of Australian alumina rose 13 US dollars/ton to 374 US dollars/ton, and the import loss was - 72 yuan/ton. The import window remained closed [61]. 6. Demand End - Electrolytic Aluminum Production: In July 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 377.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49% and a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. The cumulative production in the first seven months was 2560 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [66]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Operating Capacity and Utilization Rate: In July 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4419 tons, an increase of 16 tons from the previous month. The operating rate increased by 0.55% month - on - month to 97.24% [69]. 7. Inventory - Alumina Social Inventory: As of August 8, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 28.5 tons to 414.4 million tons. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 11.8 tons, 3 tons, 10.5 tons, and 3.2 tons respectively [75]. - Warehouse Receipt and Delivery Inventory: As of August 8, 2025, the alumina warehouse receipts decreased by 0.41 tons to 2.62 tons compared to early July, and the delivery inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1.98 tons to 8.5 tons. As the spot market loosens, the registration volume of warehouse receipts is expected to increase [77].