原油周报：连续走弱后的风险-20250808

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report previously indicated that oil prices in August were under downward pressure, and since early August, crude oil has been continuously weakening. The WTI crude oil price has dropped by approximately $7 during this period. The market's main trading logic is the repricing of geopolitics, with an increased possibility of progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace talks mediated by the US. However, risks after the continuous decline in oil prices should not be ignored, such as over - optimism about the peace talks and the impact of sanctions. It is not recommended to short oil prices at this time, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of the US - Russia - Ukraine talks [5][77]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Overall Decline: This week, oil prices declined overall. Trump claimed significant progress in talks with Russia and a high possibility of a summit between Zelensky and Putin, leading the market to price in a higher probability of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire and causing a rapid drop in oil prices. As of August 7, the WTI crude oil futures active contract closed at $63.82 per barrel, Brent crude at $66.41 per barrel, and the SC crude oil futures active contract at 508.9 yuan per barrel [5][10]. - Weakening of Inter - monthly Spreads: No detailed content on the specific situation of the weakening of inter - monthly spreads is provided [12]. - Differentiation in Net Long Positions of Crude Oil Funds: As of the week ending July 29, the net long position of WTI funds was 97,387 lots, a decrease of 850 lots from the previous week; the net long position of Brent funds was 249,973 lots, an increase of 22,728 lots from the previous week. In the refined oil market, the net long positions of gasoline, diesel, and heating oil increased by 6,049 lots, 2,817 lots, and 2,042 lots respectively [17]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - OPEC+: OPEC+ agreed at an August 3 meeting to increase daily production by 547,000 barrels in September. The voluntary production cuts of about 2.2 million barrels per day are planned to be fully restored. However, in June, the actual increase in production was limited. OPEC's crude oil production in June was 27.235 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 219,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 700,000 barrels per day. The main contributor to the increase was Saudi Arabia, while Iran's production decreased due to conflicts [21]. - United States: US crude oil production is at a high level, but the ability to increase production is limited due to limited changes in the number of rigs and low producer willingness to expand production at low oil prices. As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the weekly US crude oil production was 13.273 million barrels per day, a decrease of 102,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the average weekly production in the past four weeks was 13.367 million barrels per day [31]. - Risks: The market is pricing in a higher probability of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire, causing a rapid drop in oil prices. Trump's additional tariffs on India for buying Russian oil may be for negotiation chips. With the ongoing US - Russia and Russia - Ukraine talks, considering the VIX level of domestic crude oil, purchasing SC call options can be considered to avoid extreme risks [33]. 3. Crude Oil Demand - United States: As of the week ending August 1, gasoline and jet fuel demand declined, while distillate demand increased slightly. Overall, US oil demand decreased month - on - month. Gasoline demand was 9.04 million barrels per day, a decrease of 112,000 barrels per day from the previous week; distillate demand was 3.72 million barrels per day, an increase of 115,000 barrels per day from the previous week; jet fuel demand was 1.705 million barrels per day, a decrease of 388,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The total US petroleum product demand was 20.122 million barrels per day, a decrease of 1.265 million barrels per day from the previous week. Refinery capacity utilization reached 96.9%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous week, and crude oil processing volume was 17.124 million barrels per day, an increase of 213,000 barrels per day from the previous week [34][46]. - China: The anti - involution policy has not directly affected the oil market. Attention should be paid to whether it can drive the recovery of the domestic manufacturing industry and thus increase crude oil demand. In June, consumption improved, and crude oil processing volume increased mainly due to the significant increase in the operating rate of major refineries. The operating rate of local refineries remained low due to tax policy adjustments and the transformation of domestic energy demand [50]. 4. Crude Oil Inventory - United States: US crude oil inventories decreased slightly, and the inventory level fluctuated at a low level. As of the week ending August 1, crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) were 423.662 million barrels, a decrease of 3.029 million barrels from the previous week; SPR inventories were 402.976 million barrels, an increase of 235,000 barrels from the previous week. Cushing's weekly crude oil inventory increased by 460,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories continued to decline but were at a relatively high level, distillate inventories decreased slightly, and jet fuel inventories increased [60][66]. - OECD: In June, global crude oil demand was strong, and OECD inventories decreased slightly. The monthly global crude oil supply was 104.9 million barrels per day, demand was 104.43 million barrels per day, and the supply - demand gap was 470,000 barrels per day. OECD inventories at the end of June were 2.796 billion barrels, a decrease of 150 million barrels from the previous month [72]. 5. Summary and Outlook - The report reiterates that oil prices declined this week due to the market's repricing of geopolitics. After the continuous decline in oil prices, risks such as over - optimism about peace talks and sanctions should be considered. It is not recommended to short oil prices at this time, and attention should be paid to the US - Russia - Ukraine talks [77].