锰硅月报：情绪仍持续影响盘面，建议投机资金观望为主，产业择机套保-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - For both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, sentiment continues to significantly impact the market. Short - term speculative funds are advised to stay on the sidelines, while industrial players can choose appropriate times for hedging. The markets are currently in a state of disorderly and wide - range fluctuations. Although the current high - frequency data shows some resilience in demand, there is a risk of marginal weakening of demand in the future for both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, or the entire black sector. Attention should be paid to changes in downstream terminal demand and whether the state introduces relevant demand - supporting measures [15][95] 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key data: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week and 450 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; futures主力 (SM509) closes at 6064 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan/ton from last week and 440 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the basis is 76 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 1.25%, at a neutral historical level. The calculated immediate profit remains low, with Inner Mongolia at - 246 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 226 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at - 446 yuan/ton. The calculated immediate cost in Inner Mongolia is 6066 yuan/ton, Ningxia 6026 yuan/ton, and Guangxi 6346 yuan/ton. Steel Union's weekly manganese silicon output is 19.58 tons, up 0.5 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 4.80% lower than the same period last year. In July 2025, the output was 81.96 tons, up 6.73 tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to July was 32.51 tons or 5.39% lower than the same period last year. The weekly output of rebar is 221.18 tons, up 10.12 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 3.39% lower than the same period last year. The daily average hot metal output is 240.32 tons, down 0.39 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 3.12% higher than the same period last year. The calculated explicit inventory of manganese silicon is 54.85 tons, down 0.75 tons from last week, still at a high level [14] - Strategy: Due to the current wide - range and irregular market fluctuations, investment positions are advised to wait and see, while hedging positions can still participate at appropriate times [15] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - As of August 7, 2025, the Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot market price is 5950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week and 450 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the futures主力 (SM509) closes at 6064 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan/ton from last week and 440 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the basis is 76 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 1.25%, at a neutral historical level [20] 3.3 Profit and Cost - Profit: As of August 7, 2025, the calculated immediate profit of manganese silicon remains low. Inner Mongolia's profit is - 246 yuan/ton, up 91 yuan/ton from last week and down 15 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Ningxia's is - 226 yuan/ton, up 91 yuan/ton from last week and up 122 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Guangxi's is - 446 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton from last week and up 114 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month [25] - Cost: As of August 7, 2025, the main production area's electricity price remains stable. The calculated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia (excluding depreciation) is 6066 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from last week and up 335 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Ningxia's is 6026 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from last week and up 228 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Guangxi's is 6346 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from last week and up 286 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month [30] - Manganese ore import: In June, the manganese ore import volume was 268 tons, down 25.95 tons from the previous month and up 54.01 tons from the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative import was 1446 tons, a cumulative increase of 48.52 tons or 3.47% [33] - Manganese ore inventory: As of August 2, 2025, the manganese ore port inventory decreased to 438.5 tons, down 11 tons from the previous period [36] 3.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: As of August 7, 2025, Steel Union's weekly manganese silicon output is 19.58 tons, up 0.5 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 4.80% lower than the same period last year. In July 2025, the output was 81.96 tons, up 6.73 tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to July was 32.51 tons or 5.39% lower than the same period last year [44] - Demand: As of August 7, 2025, Steel Union's weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon is 12.52 tons, up 0.15 tons from last week. The weekly output of rebar is 221.18 tons, up 10.12 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 3.39% lower than the same period last year. The daily average hot metal output is 240.32 tons, down 0.39 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 3.12% higher than the same period last year. In June 2025, the national crude steel output under the statistical bureau's caliber was 8318 tons, down 342 tons from the previous month and down 842 tons from the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative crude steel output under the statistical bureau's caliber was 509 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 772 tons or 1.49% [61] 3.5 Inventory - Explicit inventory: As of August 7, 2025, the calculated explicit inventory of manganese silicon is 54.85 tons, down 0.75 tons from last week, still at a high level. Among them, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises under Steel Union's caliber is 16.15 tons, down 0.25 tons from the previous period [69][72] - Steel mill inventory: In July, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days from the previous month, and the steel mill inventory available days decreased significantly, at a historical low [75] 3.6 Graphical Trend - In July, the manganese silicon futures price continued the oscillating rebound trend since June. After the middle of the month, the price accelerated upwards and then entered a disorderly wide - range oscillation stage, with a monthly amplitude of 848 yuan/ton or 15.18% and a final increase of 330 yuan/ton or 5.84%. In the daily - line level, the price is still above the short - term rebound trend line since early June. The daily K - line is loose and disorderly. In the short term, continue to pay attention to the support around the rebound trend line and 5850 yuan/ton, and the resistance around the previous high of 6436 yuan/ton (for the weighted index). It is recommended that investment positions wait and see, while hedging positions can participate at appropriate times [80] Ferrosilicon 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key data: The daily average hot metal output is 240.32 tons, down 0.39 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 3.12% higher than the same period last year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium is 47.46 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.92 tons or 5.80%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative ferrosilicon exports are 20 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.25 tons or 10.11%. The calculated explicit inventory of ferrosilicon is 17.90 tons, down 0.17 tons from the previous period, and the inventory level remains at a high level in the same period. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 6000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week and up 650 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the futures主力 contract (SF509) closes at 5834 yuan/ton, up 152 yuan/ton from last week and up 564 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the basis is 166 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 2.77%, at a relatively high historical level. The calculated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is - 211 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week and up 227 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Ningxia's is 43 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from last week and up 397 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Qinghai's is 135 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week and up 637 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month. The calculated production cost in the main production areas remains basically stable. Steel Union's weekly ferrosilicon output is 10.91 tons, up 0.47 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 0.17% higher than the same period last year. In July 2025, the ferrosilicon output is 44.67 tons, up 3.26 tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to July is 0.56 tons or 0.18% lower than the same period last year [94] - Strategy: Due to the wide - range and irregular market fluctuations, it is recommended that investment positions wait and see, while hedging positions can participate at appropriate times. In the future, ferrosilicon and the entire black sector may face a marginal weakening of demand. Pay attention to changes in downstream terminal demand and whether the state introduces relevant demand - supporting measures [95] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - As of August 7, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 6000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week and up 650 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the futures主力 contract (SF509) closes at 5834 yuan/ton, up 152 yuan/ton from last week and up 564 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the basis is 166 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 2.77%, at a relatively high historical level [100] 3.3 Profit and Cost - Profit: As of August 7, 2025, the calculated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is - 211 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week and up 227 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Ningxia's is 43 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from last week and up 397 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Qinghai's is 135 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week and up 637 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month [105] - Cost: As of August 7, 2025, the electricity price in the main production areas remains stable. The calculated production cost in the main production areas remains basically stable. The cost in Inner Mongolia is 5661 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week and up 123 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Ningxia's is 5357 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week and down 97 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Qinghai's is 5265 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week and down 337 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month [111] 3.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: As of August 7, 2025, Steel Union's weekly ferrosilicon output is 10.91 tons, up 0.47 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 0.17% higher than the same period last year. In July 2025, the ferrosilicon output is 44.67 tons, up 3.26 tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to July is 0.56 tons or 0.18% lower than the same period last year [116] - Demand: As of August 7, 2025, the daily average hot metal output is 240.32 tons, down 0.39 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 3.12% higher than the same period last year. In June 2025, the national crude steel output under the statistical bureau's caliber is 8318 tons, down 342 tons from the previous month and down 842 tons from the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative crude steel output under the statistical bureau's caliber is 509 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 772 tons or 1.49%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium is 47.46 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.92 tons or 5.80%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative ferrosilicon exports are 20 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.25 tons or 10.11% [125] 3.5 Inventory - Explicit inventory: As of August 7, 2025, the calculated explicit inventory of ferrosilicon is 17.90 tons, down 0.17 tons from the previous period, and the inventory level remains at a high level in the same period [139] - Steel mill inventory: In July, the average available days of ferrosilicon in steel mills is 14.25 days, down 1.13 days from the previous month, and the steel mill raw material inventory decreased significantly, at a historical low [142] 3.6 Graphical Trend - In July, the ferrosilicon futures price continued the oscillating rebound trend since June. After the middle of the month, the price accelerated upwards and then entered a disorderly wide - range oscillation stage, with a monthly amplitude of 1112 yuan/ton or 21.27% and a final increase of 420 yuan/ton or 7.85%. In the daily - line level, the price is still above the short - term rebound trend line since early June. The daily K - line is loose and disorderly. In the short term, continue to pay attention to the support around 5600 yuan/ton and 5700 yuan/ton, and the resistance around the previous high of 6340 yuan/ton (for the weighted index). It is recommended that investment positions wait and see, while hedging positions can participate at appropriate times [148]