铜月报：供应有压力，政策有支撑-20250808

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Entering August, the estimated production of refined copper in China is expected to decline, and imports are also expected to increase after the implementation of US copper tariffs. However, the tight supply of scrap copper is expected to alleviate the surplus to some extent. Overseas demand is expected to be neutral, and inventories face continued pressure to increase. At the macro - level, the marginal impact of the implementation of US counter - tariffs is not significant. With the expectation of a Fed rate cut, overseas risk appetite is acceptable. The strong performance of the domestic equity market, combined with the expectation of anti - involution policies, also provides support on the sentiment side. Overall, the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US tariffs puts pressure on copper prices, while the expectations of a Fed rate cut and anti - involution policies still support prices, and copper prices may trade in a range. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE copper this month is 76,500 - 80,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M copper is 9,400 - 9,900 US dollars/ton. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or go long on volatility after sideways movement [9]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Monthly Key Points Summary - Supply: In the first half of the year, the production of major overseas copper mining enterprises was lower than expected, and the supply of copper concentrates remained tight. Domestic refined copper production continued to grow, but it is expected to decline starting from August [9]. - Demand: In July, the apparent consumption of refined copper in China is estimated to have continued to grow at a relatively high rate. In August, with the base increasing, the consumption growth rate is expected to decline. The manufacturing prosperity overseas is differentiated, and short - term demand expectations are neutral [9]. - Imports and Exports: In July, the import loss of SHFE copper narrowed, and the imports of unwrought copper and copper products increased. It is estimated that the import volume will further increase in August [9]. - Inventory: In July, the inventory of SHFE decreased, while the inventories of LME, COMEX, and the bonded area increased. It is estimated that there will be some inventory accumulation pressure both at home and abroad in August [9]. - Summary: Copper prices may trade in a range. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE copper is 76,500 - 80,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M copper is 9,400 - 9,900 US dollars/ton. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or go long on volatility after sideways movement [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Market Review: In July, copper prices oscillated weakly. The main contract of SHFE copper fell 2.29%, and the LME 3M copper contract fell 2.74%. Before the implementation of US copper tariffs and counter - tariffs, the market weakened. The US copper tariffs not meeting expectations caused US copper to soar and then plummet, and SHFE copper and LME copper traded weakly. The US dollar index rose 3.34%, and the offshore RMB depreciated 0.75% [17]. - Spreads between Markets: In July, there were more deliveries of LME copper, the spot supply was loose, and the monthly spread weakened. SHFE copper outperformed LME copper. Currently, the spot import of SHFE copper only incurs a small loss. The US 232 investigation on copper was finalized, and on July 9, Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper products. The tariff exceeding expectations caused US copper to rise significantly relative to LME copper, but the market only priced in about 30% of the tariff at most. On July 30, the US disclosed the details of copper product tariffs, which were significantly lower than expected. Only semi - finished copper and copper - intensive derivative products were included, and cathode copper was not taxed. US copper fell significantly relative to LME copper, and the US copper arbitrage window was basically closed [20]. - Inventory & Basis: As of early August, the total inventory of the three major exchanges plus the Shanghai bonded area was about 523,000 tons, an increase of 97,000 tons from the end of June. The total inventory has moved out of the relatively low level, but there are still structural inventory problems (COMEX inventory accounts for a high proportion, about 45%). The copper inventory in China rebounded this month, with the exchange inventory at about 73,000 tons and the off - exchange social inventory at about 60,000 tons. The bonded area inventory increased month - on - month, with an absolute amount of about 75,000 tons. LME copper inventory increased and rebounded to over 140,000 tons in early August, and the inventory has continued to increase recently. The total inventory of COMEX copper is about 234,000 tons. In terms of the basis, the increase in LME inventory pushed the Cash/3M from a premium to a discount, with a discount of over 60 US dollars/ton in early August. With no significant increase in Chinese imports and a tight supply of scrap copper, the spot remained tight, and the basis was relatively firm, reported at over 100 yuan/ton in early August [23][26]. - Fund Sentiment: As of the end of July, CFTC fund positions remained net long, and the net long ratio increased to 13.1%. However, long positions were reduced as the tariff implementation time approached, and the bullish sentiment of funds decreased marginally. The proportion of long positions of LME investment funds decreased, and the market was generally cautious before and after the tariff implementation. In August, the impact on market sentiment mainly comes from the Fed's monetary policy expectations, inventory changes, and trade situations [29]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply - Copper Mines: The total output of 15 large and medium - sized copper mining enterprises was about 3.003 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%, with a continued low growth rate. The output increase mainly came from BHP, Zijin Mining, MMG, Vale, CMOC, and Rio Tinto, while the decrease mainly came from Freeport, Anglo American, Teck Resources, and First Quantum Minerals. Rio Tinto's production guidance was raised this quarter, while Glencore and Teck Resources' production guidance was lowered. In June, the copper mine output in Chile decreased significantly month - on - month, mainly due to the decline in the output of the Escondida copper mine. Recently, the El Teniente mine under the state - owned Codelco in Chile had an accident and stopped production, resulting in significant disturbances in the mine - end supply [34]. - Supply - Refined Copper: In July, the domestic production of refined copper increased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month as the smelter operating rate remained high. In August, there are still few maintenance activities at copper smelters, but due to the tight supply of raw materials, the output is expected to decline slightly. There will be more maintenance of domestic copper smelters in September, and the output is expected to decline further [43]. - Supply - Recycled Copper: In July, the average spread between refined and scrap copper in China was about 1,220 yuan/ton, narrowing slightly month - on - month. The substitution advantage of scrap copper was at a relatively low level. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises oscillated, and the marginal substitution of refined copper changed little. In August, the supply of scrap copper remained tight, the refined - scrap spread remained low, and the substitution of electrolytic copper from the consumption side is expected to decrease [46]. - Demand - China: Assuming exports were flat or slightly increased in July, the apparent consumption of domestic refined copper is estimated to be 1.404 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 6.4%. The cumulative apparent consumption from January to July was about 9.395 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%. From the perspective of leading economic indicators, both the official manufacturing PMI and the Caixin manufacturing PMI in China declined in July, and the Caixin manufacturing PMI fell below the boom - bust line, indicating a marginal weakening of manufacturing prosperity [49]. - Demand - Overseas: In July, the manufacturing prosperity of major overseas developed economies was differentiated. The eurozone and India had relatively strong prosperity, while the US and Japan had relatively weak prosperity. According to ICSG data, the global refined copper consumption decreased month - on - month in May 2025 but increased year - on - year, with a consumption growth of about 3.6% from January to May [67]. 4. Macro Analysis - In July, the US unemployment rate rose, and the non - farm data was below expectations. The inflation data in the US stabilized and rose slightly in June. Despite the strong resilience of US economic data, under political pressure, the market still expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 BP with a probability of over 90% at the September FOMC meeting [71]. - In July, the US dollar index rebounded and is currently in a stage of oscillating and rebounding. The 10 - year inflation expectation in the US is weak, providing a slightly bearish indication for copper prices [73].