甲醇月报：供需偏弱，港口加速累库-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, methanol prices rose and then fell. Affected by China's anti - involution policy, prices increased significantly in the short term, and option volatility also soared. After the sentiment of related commodities reached its peak, prices began to decline, and methanol returned to its weak fundamental situation, with prices dropping back to the pre - start level. Overall, the upside potential of prices is limited under the weak supply - demand situation [12]. - The supply side shows that domestic production in July was 8.41 million tons, with a month - on - month decline and a year - on - year high. It is expected that the operating rate will bottom out and rebound in August. Overseas device operating rates have gradually recovered to a high level, and subsequent imports will gradually increase. Port olefin devices have stopped, and the load has declined from a high level [12]. - On the demand side, the operating rate of traditional demand has decreased during the off - season, and the overall profit level is at a low level [12]. - In terms of fundamentals, the 9 - 1 spread has continued to decline significantly due to improved expectations and weakening reality. Coal prices have bottomed out and rebounded, and coal - to - methanol profits remain at a relatively high level. Port MTO has stopped, and olefin profits have improved, but the absolute level is still not high. The price ratio of methanol to related varieties is at a medium - high level, and the valuation of methanol is still on the high side [12]. - Regarding inventory, port inventory continued to rise in July due to increased imports and stopped port devices. Inland inventory has been maintained at a year - on - year low level due to maintenance and olefin procurement [12]. - The market logic is that as the sentiment of the overall commodity market cools down, methanol returns to its own fundamentals. The weak downstream demand combined with the relatively high valuation of methanol itself puts downward pressure on prices. Domestic production is likely to increase marginally in the future, and port inventory is accumulating faster due to increased import unloading speed and stopped port MTO devices. Inland areas are under less pressure due to olefin procurement. Currently, the valuation of methanol is still high, and downstream demand is weak, so prices are under pressure. Unilateral prices are greatly affected by the overall commodity sentiment, and methanol can be considered as a short - position variety within the sector. The strategy is to pay attention to short - position opportunities on price rallies [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: In July, methanol prices first rose and then fell. Affected by policies, prices increased sharply in the short term, and option volatility also increased. After the peak of commodity sentiment, prices returned to the weak fundamental level [12]. - Supply: Domestic production in July was 8.41 million tons, with a month - on - month decline and a year - on - year high. It is expected that the operating rate will bottom out and rebound in August. Overseas device operating rates have recovered to a high level, and imports will increase [12]. - Demand: Traditional demand operating rates are low during the off - season, and overall profits are low [12]. - Fundamentals: The 9 - 1 spread has declined significantly. Coal prices have rebounded, and coal - to - methanol profits are high. Port MTO has stopped, and olefin profits have improved but are still not high. Methanol valuation is relatively high [12]. - Inventory: Port inventory has increased, while inland inventory is at a low level [12]. - Market Logic: As commodity sentiment cools, methanol returns to its fundamentals. Weak demand and high valuation put pressure on prices. Future supply is likely to increase, and port inventory is accumulating faster [12]. - Strategy: Look for short - position opportunities on price rallies [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Basis and Spread: The reality is weak, and the 9 - 1 spread has continued to decline [21]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: There has been a decline in volume and open interest, accompanied by price drops [24]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Production Profit: Coal - to - methanol profits are at a year - on - year high [36]. - Port Inventory: Due to increased arrivals and stopped downstream port devices, port inventory is accumulating faster [39]. - Regional Inventory: Inland inventory is at a year - on - year low level due to olefin procurement [42]. 3.4 Supply Side - Capacity: Newly added capacity in 2025 is 7.45 million tons, mainly in the northwest region [50]. - Upstream Production and Operating Rate: Domestic production and operating rates have shown certain trends, and overseas operating rates have recovered to a high level [52][54]. - Imports: Import volume and its sources are presented, and the arrival volume has increased [59][70]. - International Price Difference: The import profit and price differences between China and other regions are analyzed [74]. - Regional Price Difference: Port prices have weakened, while inland prices are relatively strong [77]. - Domestic Freight: The freight rates of methanol transportation are shown [84]. 3.5 Demand Side - Demand Projection: Consumption and inventory data are presented [88]. - Methanol - to - Olefins: Port MTO has stopped, and olefin profits have rebounded [91]. - PP Production Profits: The production profits of different PP production processes are analyzed [94]. - MTO - Related Spreads: Various spreads related to MTO are presented [97]. - Downstream Inventory: Downstream raw material inventory is at a high level [111]. - Related Variety Price Ratio: The valuation of methanol is relatively high compared to related varieties [114]. 3.6 Option - Related - Methanol Options: The trading volume, open interest, and volatility of methanol options are presented [118]. 3.7 Industry Structure Diagram - Industry Chain and Research Framework: Diagrams of the methanol industry chain and the research framework analysis are provided [124][126].