尿素月报：低估值弱驱动，价格区间运行-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In July 2025, the urea price remained in a narrow - range operation. With the weakening of domestic agricultural demand, inventory destocking was slow, and the basis and inter - monthly basis were weak. However, the absolute price of urea was low, and both fixed - bed and gas - based processes were in losses, showing a pattern of low valuation and weak drivers. Although there were export rumors driving price rebounds, the cost support was strengthening, and the downside space for urea was limited. It was recommended to wait and see or pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: In July, the urea price maintained a narrow - range operation. With the weakening of domestic agricultural demand, inventory destocking was slow, and the basis and inter - monthly basis were weak. The low price was accompanied by export rumors that drove price rebounds. The cost support was strengthening, and the downside space was limited [12]. - Fundamentals - Supply: In July, the domestic production was 6.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons, and at a high level year - on - year. The operating rate was 84.3%, showing a decline for three consecutive months. The enterprise profit was still at a low level, limiting the overall operating enthusiasm. The export containerization continued to progress, with 70,000 tons exported in June, and it was expected to further increase [12]. - Demand: The production of autumn fertilizers started in July, and the operating rate of compound fertilizers continued to rise, becoming an important support for urea demand. Supported by exports, the enterprise's advance orders were performing well [12]. - Valuation: The price difference between domestic and international markets was still large, and the domestic market was significantly undervalued. The price ratio with related nitrogen fertilizers was at a medium - low level, and the spot valuation of urea was low [12]. - Inventory: The departure volume from ports was more than the containerization volume. The port inventory this week was 493,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,000 tons. The enterprise inventory was 917,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 58,500 tons, due to the weakening of domestic agricultural demand and the less - than - expected export connection [12]. - Market Logic: Currently, the market was in a pattern of low valuation and weak drivers, with strong cost support at the bottom. The price continued to fluctuate, and the volatility decreased significantly. Without additional positive factors, it was difficult to break out of the shock range, and the cost - effectiveness of unilateral participation was not high [12]. - Strategy: Wait and see or pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Contracts: The price of the 09 contract increased from 1,712 to 1,714, a change of 2; the 01 contract increased from 1,682 to 1,736, a change of 54; the 05 contract increased from 1,696 to 1,775, a change of 79. The 9 - 1 spread decreased from 30 to - 22, a change of - 52; the 1 - 5 spread decreased from - 14 to - 39, a change of - 25; the 5 - 9 spread increased from - 16 to 61, a change of 77 [13]. - Domestic Spot Market: The spot prices in Shandong, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia decreased, while the price in Henan remained unchanged. The basis in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei all declined [13]. - Downstream Products: The prices of compound fertilizers in Shandong and Hubei increased, while the price of melamine decreased. The profit of compound fertilizers in Shandong decreased, the profit of compound fertilizers in Hubei decreased slightly, and the profit of melamine increased [13]. - International Prices: The FOB prices in the Arabian Gulf, the Baltic Sea, and other regions increased, and the FOB price in China also increased. The urea export profit increased from 1,002 to 1,187 [13]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Production Profit: The enterprise profit continued to decline. The profits of fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and gas - based production all showed a downward trend [32][33]. - Urea Inventory: Due to the low price and the boost from Indian tenders, the downstream enthusiasm rebounded, and the enterprise inventory was being destocked. The port inventory decreased, and the enterprise inventory increased slightly [36][37]. 3.4 Supply Side - Urea Capacity: There were planned new production capacities in 2024 - 2025, including Anhui Quansheng Chemical, Henan Jinkai Yanhua, etc. [45]. - Urea Operating Rate: The operating rate fluctuated downward. Many enterprises carried out maintenance, including Shaanxi Aowei Qianyuan Chemical, Inner Mongolia Wulantai Energy Chemical, etc. There were also planned maintenance in August - September for some enterprises such as Shanxi Lu'an Coal - based Synthetic Oil [47][50][51]. 3.5 Demand Side - Consumption: The consumption of urea was affected by factors such as compound fertilizer production, melamine production, and exports. The operating rate of compound fertilizers continued to rise, and the export profit of urea was high [58][81]. - Terminal Demand: The terminal demand was related to industries such as plywood, real estate, etc. The export volume of plywood and the real - estate indicators such as housing construction and sales had an impact on the demand for urea [71][74]. - Export: The export profit of urea was relatively high, and the export volume was expected to increase. The export volumes of related nitrogen fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate and ammonium chloride also showed certain trends [81][82][88]. 3.6 Option - related - The report presented data on the trading volume, open interest, and other indicators of urea options, as well as the relationship between option volatility and futures prices [97][99][106]. 3.7 Industrial Structure Diagram - The report showed the urea industry chain, research framework analysis mind - map, and the characteristics of the urea industry chain. It also provided an overview of the seasonal demand for fertilizers in different regions of China and major countries around the world [109][112][114].