美联储独立性进一步受扰，价格存在上行驱动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This month, precious metal prices showed overall strength. COMEX gold prices rose 3.29% to $3,482.7 per ounce, and SHFE gold prices rose 1.84% to 787.8 yuan per gram. COMEX silver prices rose 3.63% to $38.53 per ounce, and SHFE silver prices rose 2.63% to 9,278 yuan per kilogram [11]. - The confirmation of the new voting member of the Fed has further impacted its monetary policy independence. Trump appointed Stephen Milan as a Fed governor, and the probability of current Fed governor Waller becoming the new Fed chair has increased. Trump has criticized Powell for not cutting interest rates [11]. - Economic data indicates a weakening US economy. The non - farm payroll data in July was significantly lower than expected, and economic data in August has also turned weak. After the release of non - farm data, Fed voting members' monetary policy stances have turned dovish [11]. - The market has increased its expectations for the Fed's subsequent loose monetary policy. It is recommended to buy on dips in precious metal strategies. The reference operating range for SHFE gold is 777 - 801 yuan per gram, and for SHFE silver is 9,081 - 9,520 yuan per kilogram [11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Market Outlook - Price Performance: COMEX gold prices rose 3.29% to $3,482.7 per ounce, SHFE gold prices rose 1.84% to 787.8 yuan per gram. COMEX silver prices rose 3.63% to $38.53 per ounce, SHFE silver prices rose 2.63% to 9,278 yuan per kilogram [11]. - Fed Independence: Trump's appointment of Milan and the potential appointment of Waller have affected the Fed's independence, increasing pressure for interest rate cuts [11]. - Economic Data: US non - farm payroll data in July was weak, and economic data in August has also deteriorated. Fed voting members have turned dovish [11]. - Market Expectations: The market expects the Fed to implement further loose monetary policies. Precious metal strategies suggest buying on dips, with reference ranges for SHFE gold at 777 - 801 yuan per gram and SHFE silver at 9,081 - 9,520 yuan per kilogram [11]. 3.2 Market Review - Price and Index: The US dollar index and related precious metal prices are presented in graphs. Precious metal prices showed overall strength this month, with gold and silver prices rising [29]. - Position Performance: Gold positions were strong, with COMEX gold total positions rising 1.74% to 445,300 lots and SHFE gold total positions rising 12.87% to 441,900 lots. Silver positions were weaker, with COMEX silver total positions rising 4.13% to 170,300 lots and SHFE silver total positions falling 18.06% to 784,200 lots [31][34]. - Net Long Positions: As of July 29, COMEX gold management fund net long positions decreased by 25,678 lots to 134,300 lots, and COMEX silver management fund net positions decreased by 990 lots to 43,000 lots [36]. - ETF Positions: Gold and silver ETF total positions continued to rise, with gold ETF total positions at 2,167.1 tons and silver ETF total positions at 27,434.8 tons as of August 7 [39]. 3.3 Interest Rates and Liquidity - Yield Curve: Graphs show the US 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yield spreads and short - term Treasury yields [50]. - Inflation Expectations: Graphs present the US federal funds rate, overnight reverse repurchase rate, 10 - year nominal and real interest rates, and inflation expectations [52]. - Fed Balance Sheet: The Fed's balance sheet monthly changes are detailed, and this month, the Treasury TGA account balance increased, deposit reserve scale decreased, and US dollar liquidity tightened [54][57]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - CPI & PCE: US CPI in June was 2.7% year - on - year, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value. Core CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, lower than expected [62]. - Employment: The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending August 2 was 226,000, higher than expected [65]. - PMI & PPI: US ISM manufacturing PMI in July was 48, below the boom - bust line and lower than expected. ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, also lower than expected [68]. - New Home Data: US new home starts in June were 1.321 million units, higher than expected, and building permits were 1.397 million units, also higher than expected [71]. 3.5 Precious Metal Spreads - Base Spreads: Graphs show gold and silver TD - SHFE base spreads, as well as gold and silver internal and external spreads [74][76][79]. 3.6 Precious Metal Inventories - Silver Inventories: Graphs show silver inventories from various sources, including Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, COMEX, and LBMA [87][89][90]. - Gold Inventories: Graphs show COMEX and LBMA gold inventories [91].