PVC月报：供给压力逐渐增大，弱基本面下高估值难以支撑-20250808

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC industry is currently facing a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. The fundamentals are poor, and it is necessary to observe whether subsequent exports can exceed expectations to reverse the domestic inventory accumulation pattern. In the short term, prices have fallen sharply after the anti - involution sentiment subsided. In the medium term, if there is no policy for device clearance, the supply - demand pattern will remain weak, and the industry still faces the pressure of de - valuing to clear excess capacity [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost and Profit: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is 2,340 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 90 yuan/ton; Shandong calcium carbide is 2,780 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 75 yuan/ton; and Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 620 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration first soared and then declined, and the profit from ethylene production remained low, with weak valuation support [11]. - Supply: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 79.5%, a monthly increase of 2%. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 78.7%, a monthly decrease of 2.2%, and the ethylene method is 81.5%, a monthly increase of 13%. Last month, the maintenance volume was high, and the average capacity utilization rate was lower than that in June, with reduced supply pressure. This month, the maintenance intensity is lower than last month, and the newly - put - into - production devices are gradually releasing output, so the supply pressure is expected to increase significantly [11]. - Demand: In terms of exports, there was a high export growth rate in the first five months. In June, with the rainy season in Southeast Asia and the uncertainty of export policies to India, overall exports declined significantly. Currently, both India's BIS policy and anti - dumping policy have been extended, improving the weak outlook for the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries stopped falling and rebounded. The pipe load is 32.1%, a monthly decrease of 7.4%; the film load is 76.9%, a monthly increase of 4.7%; the profile load is 36.9%, a monthly increase of 2.2%. The overall downstream load is 42.9%, the same as last month. The overall downstream performance is worse than the same period last year, and the overall demand is weak. The main incremental demand depends on exports [11]. - Inventory: At the end of the month, the in - factory inventory was 33.7 tons, a monthly decrease of 4.9 tons; the social inventory was 77.7 tons, a monthly increase of 18.5 tons; the overall inventory was 111.4 tons, a monthly increase of 13.6 tons; and the warehouse receipts continued to rise. Currently, it has entered the inventory accumulation cycle, and the upstream inventory is gradually transferred to the middle - stream. In the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, if the export end does not perform better than expected, inventory accumulation will continue [11]. 3.2 Cost End - The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai is 2,340 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 90 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide in Shandong is 2,780 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 75 yuan/ton; and the price of Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 620 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The semi - coke price has stabilized, and caustic soda is weak [11][49]. 3.3 Supply End - In 2025, the capacity investment in the PVC industry is relatively large, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. New capacity of 250 tons/year is expected to be put into production, including 100 tons/year of ethylene - based and 150 tons/year of calcium - carbide - based. The newly - put - into - production devices include those of Xinsheng Chemical, Jintai Chemical, Wanhua Chemical (Phase II), Tianjin Bohua, Zhejiang Jiahua, Qingdao Gulf, and Gansu Yaowang [58][63]. 3.4 Demand End - The operating rates of the three major downstream industries (pipes, films, and profiles) of PVC stopped falling and rebounded. In terms of exports, there was a high growth rate in the first five months, but it declined significantly in June. With the extension of India's anti - dumping policy, there may be a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The overall downstream demand is weak, and the main incremental demand depends on exports [11].