国债周报：债市短期重回震荡-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, the economic data in the first half of this year remained resilient despite tariff disruptions. The July PMI data was lower than expected, with both supply and demand sides declining month - on - month. The export may face pressure in the future. In terms of funds, the central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds, and it is expected that the funds will remain loose. In the context of weak domestic demand recovery and the continuation of loose funds, the general direction of interest rates is still downward. In the short term, the bond market may return to a volatile pattern. The bond market should be mainly considered for long - term buying at low prices [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Economic and Policy: The economic data in the first half of this year was resilient under the influence of tariffs. The July PMI data was lower than expected, with both supply and demand sides declining. The new export orders decreased, and the export may face pressure in the future due to the over - drafting of the export rush and the rising base in the second half of the year. Overseas, the Fed's stance at the FOMC meeting was marginally hawkish, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged, and the probability of a September rate cut in the US increased due to lower - than - expected employment data [9][10]. - Liquidity: This week, the central bank conducted 1126.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 1663.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.45% [11]. - Interest Rate: The latest 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 1.69%, down 1.47 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year Treasury yield closed at 1.95%, up 0.40 BP week - on - week. The latest 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.23%, unchanged week - on - week [11]. - Trading Strategy: The recommended trading strategy is to go long on dips, with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended period of 6 months, driven by loose monetary policy and the difficulty of credit improvement [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Contract Price and Premium: The report presents the closing prices, annualized premiums, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, along with their historical trends [17][20][23][26]. - Contract Holdings: The report shows the closing prices and holdings of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts [29][31][34][36]. 3.3 Major Economic Data - Domestic Economy: - GDP and PMI: In the second quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations. The July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous value; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, also down 0.4 percentage points, both lower than expected [42]. - Manufacturing PMI Sub - items: In July, both supply and demand in the manufacturing industry declined. The production index decreased seasonally, and new orders returned to the contraction range. The new export orders decreased, and the export may face pressure [43][48]. - Price Index: In June, the year - on - year CPI increased by 0.1%, the core CPI increased by 0.7%, and the PPI decreased by 3.6%. The month - on - month CPI decreased by 0.1%, the core CPI was flat, and the PPI decreased by 0.4% [51]. - Export: In July 2025, China's import and export data improved, with exports (in US dollars) increasing by 7.2% year - on - year and imports increasing by 4.1% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased, while exports to ASEAN maintained a high growth rate [54]. - Industrial and Consumption Data: In June, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 6.4%, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.8%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous value [57]. - Investment and Real Estate: In June, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 2.8%, the real estate investment growth rate was - 11.2%, the infrastructure investment growth rate was 4.6%, and the manufacturing investment growth rate was 7.5%. The prices of second - hand houses in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [60]. - Real Estate Construction and Sales: In June, the cumulative value of new housing starts decreased by 20.0% year - on - year, and the cumulative value of new housing construction decreased by 9.1% year - on - year. The completion data decreased year - on - year, and the sales of new houses in 30 large cities weakened [63][66]. - Foreign Economy: - US Economy: In the second quarter, the US GDP was 3.0331 trillion US dollars, with a real year - on - year growth rate of 1.99% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 3.0%. In June, the year - on - year CPI increased by 2.7%, and the core CPI increased by 2.9%. The durable goods orders in June increased by 10.93% year - on - year. In July, the non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. The July ISM manufacturing PMI was 48, and the June ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50.8 [69][72][75]. - EU Economy: In the second quarter, the EU GDP increased by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.2% quarter - on - quarter [75]. - Eurozone Economy: In July, the preliminary value of the Eurozone CPI increased by 2% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year. The July manufacturing PMI was 49.8, and the service PMI was 51.2 [78]. 3.4 Liquidity - Money Supply and Social Financing: In June, the M1 growth rate was 4.6%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.3%. The social financing increment was 4.2 trillion yuan, mainly from the growth of government bonds. Both corporate and household credit improved [83]. - Social Financing Sub - items: In June, the growth rate of government bonds in social financing continued to rebound, and the financing of the real sector improved. The social financing growth rate of households and enterprises was 6.06%, and the growth rate of government bonds was 21.30% [86]. - MLF and Reverse Repurchase: In July, the MLF balance was 525 billion yuan, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 1126.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 1663.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan [89]. 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Interest Rate Changes: The report provides the latest interest rates and their daily, weekly, and monthly changes for various types of bonds and repurchase rates, including domestic and US Treasury bonds [92]. - Interest Rate Trends: The report shows the trends of Treasury bond yields, inter - bank pledged repurchase rates, US Treasury bond yields, and the yields of UK, French, German, and Italian Treasury bonds [96][99]. - Exchange Rates: The report presents the trends of the Fed's target interest rate and the exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB [100].