碳酸锂月报：矿端持续扰动-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Lithium carbonate is gradually diverging from the trend of active varieties. The improvement of the lithium salt supply - demand pattern depends on the substantial reduction in the mining end. As the peak season approaches in the second half of the year, the expected adjustment of large - scale mineral supply has a significant impact on the market. In the past two days, under the influence of news from Jiangxi mines, bullish sentiment has dominated the market. Currently, most of the news from the mining end cannot be verified, and the sustainability of supply reduction needs to be observed. Recently, the sentiment fluctuations brought by the news have been frequent, and the uncertainty of capital game is relatively high. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see cautiously. Lithium carbonate holders can seize the entry points according to their own operations. In the future, attention should be paid to industrial chain information and market atmosphere [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Data: On August 8, the morning quote of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 69,832 yuan, with a weekly increase of 1.45% and an increase of 11.5% in the past month. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,000 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2511 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 76,960 yuan, with a weekly increase of 11.2% [12] - Supply: On August 7, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate by SMM was 19,556 tons, a 13.2% increase from the previous week. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene reached a record high, and the operating rates of lithium carbonate from lepidolite and salt lakes rebounded. The domestic lithium carbonate production returned to a high level. In June, about 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate was exported from Chile to China, and the overseas supply pressure was relatively small in July. In July 2025, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was 20,900 tons, a 43% increase from the previous month and a 4% increase year - on - year. Among them, 13,600 tons were exported to China, a 33% increase from the previous month and a 13% decrease year - on - year [12] - Demand: The Passenger Car Association predicts that the retail sales of new energy vehicles in July will reach about 1.01 million, and the penetration rate is expected to increase to 54.6%. From January to June, the cumulative global sales of new energy vehicles increased by 26.2% year - on - year. In July, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by about 3.1% from the previous month. In August, the month - on - month increase in the production of cathode materials is expected to be slightly larger [12] - Inventory: On August 7, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 142,418 tons, a 692 - ton (0.5%) increase from the previous week. With the recovery of supply, continuous inventory reduction has not occurred. On August 7, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 16,443 tons, and about 10,900 tons of new warehouse receipts were registered in August [12] - Cost: The ore price adjusted following the lithium salt price. On August 8, the quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 750 - 820 US dollars per ton, a 5.37% increase from the previous week and an 18.5% increase in the past month. The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines began to ease in July, and the process of resource - end clearance was postponed [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price and Trend: On August 8, the morning quote of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 69,832 yuan, with a weekly increase of 1.45% and an 11.5% increase in the past month. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,000 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2511 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 76,960 yuan, with a weekly increase of 11.2% [20] - Market Features: The average discount of the exchange - standard electric carbon trading market is about - 100 yuan. The net short position of lithium carbonate contract holdings increased [23] - Price Difference: The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 5,910 yuan [26] 3.3 Supply End - Domestic Production: On August 7, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate by SMM was 19,556 tons, a 13.2% increase from the previous week. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene reached a record high, and the operating rates of lithium carbonate from lepidolite and salt lakes rebounded. In July 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a 4.4% increase from the previous month, a 25.5% increase year - on - year, and a 40.6% cumulative increase in the first seven months year - on - year [31] - Production by Source: In July, the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 44,810 tons, a 13.6% increase from the previous month and a 47.9% increase year - on - year, with a 73.8% cumulative increase in the first seven months year - on - year. The production of lithium carbonate from lepidolite was 18,000 tons, a 7.6% decrease from the previous month, with a 21.0% cumulative increase in the first seven months year - on - year. The production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased by 7.6% to 12,340 tons in July, with a 15.6% cumulative increase in the first seven months year - on - year. The production of lithium carbonate from the recycling end increased by 9.8% to 6,380 tons in July, with a 17.4% cumulative increase in the first seven months year - on - year [34][37] - Imports: In June 2025, China imported 17,698 tons of lithium carbonate, a 16.3% decrease from the previous month and a 9.6% decrease year - on - year. Among them, 11,853 tons were imported from Chile and 5,094 tons from Argentina. From January to June, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 118,000 tons, a 10.7% increase year - on - year. In June, about 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate was exported from Chile to China, and the overseas supply pressure was relatively small in July. In July 2025, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was 20,900 tons, a 43% increase from the previous month and a 4% increase year - on - year. Among them, 13,600 tons were exported to China, a 33% increase from the previous month and a 13% decrease year - on - year [40] 3.4 Demand End - Consumption Structure: The battery field dominates lithium demand, accounting for 87% of global consumption in 2024. The future growth point of lithium salt consumption still relies on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while the traditional application fields have limited proportion and weak growth. The proportion of lithium used in fields such as ceramic glass, lubricants, flux powder, air - conditioning, and medicine is only 5% [44] - New Energy Vehicle Sales: The Passenger Car Association predicts that the retail sales of new energy vehicles in July will reach about 1.01 million, and the penetration rate is expected to increase to 54.6%. From January to June, the global sales of new energy vehicles increased by 26.2% year - on - year. From January to June, the total sales of new energy vehicles in Europe were 1.191 million, a 24.8% increase from the previous year. From January to June, the total sales of new energy vehicles in the United States were 761,000, a 6.4% increase from the previous year [47][50] - Battery Production and Installation: In June, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 129.2 GWh, a 4.6% increase from the previous month and a 51.4% increase year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 697.3 GWh, a 60.4% cumulative increase year - on - year. In June, the installation volume of power batteries in China was 58.2 GWh, a 1.9% increase from the previous month and a 35.9% increase year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative installation volume of power batteries in China was 299.6 GWh, a 47.3% cumulative increase year - on - year [53] - Cathode Material Production: In July, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by about 3.1% from the previous month. In August, the month - on - month increase in the production of cathode materials is expected to be slightly larger [56] 3.5 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: On August 7, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 142,418 tons, a 692 - ton (0.5%) increase from the previous week. With the recovery of supply, continuous inventory reduction has not occurred. On August 7, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 16,443 tons, and about 10,900 tons of new warehouse receipts were registered in August [63] - Other Inventory Features: The inventory cycle of cathode materials is about one week. The sales - to - inventory ratio of power batteries is at a recent median, and the inventory of energy - storage batteries is at a recent low due to export rush [66] 3.6 Cost End - Ore Price: The ore price adjusted following the lithium salt price. On August 8, the quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 750 - 820 US dollars per ton, a 5.37% increase from the previous week and an 18.5% increase in the past month. The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines began to ease in July, and the process of resource - end clearance was postponed [74] - Lithium Concentrate Imports: In June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 428,000 tons, a 18.1% decrease year - on - year and a 17.2% decrease from the previous month. From January to June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 2.806 million tons, a 0.2% cumulative decrease year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and the import of lithium concentrate from Africa decreased by 13.0% year - on - year [77]