股指月报：持续上涨后，震荡概率大-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - After continuous increases, the probability of market fluctuations is high. The A-share market has shown resilience recently. Although short - term volatility of the market may intensify after continuous index increases, the overall strategy is to go long on dips [10][11] - The Politburo meeting emphasized enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, confirming the policy's support for the capital market [10][11] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Important News: The Politburo meeting aimed to enhance the capital market's attractiveness; overseas stock trading income is taxable; A - share margin trading balance is close to 2 trillion yuan; the central bank conducted a 7000 - billion - yuan 3 - month reverse repurchase operation [10] - Economic and Corporate Earnings: Q2 GDP growth was 5.2%; June consumption growth was 4.8%; industrial added - value growth was 6.8%; July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%; June social financing scale increased by 8.9% year - on - year; July exports increased by 7.2% and imports by 4.1% [10] - Interest Rates and Credit Environment: 10Y treasury and credit bond rates declined, and credit spreads narrowed. Liquidity became looser at the beginning of the month [10] - Trading Strategy Recommendations: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term due to medium - low valuation and long - term IM discount; hold IF long positions for 6 months as a new interest rate cut cycle may benefit high - dividend assets [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Spot Market: The Shanghai Composite Index was at 3573.21, up 3.74%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 11009.77, up 5.20%; and other major indices also had varying degrees of increase [14] - Futures Market: All major index futures contracts showed increases, such as IF contracts with increases ranging from 3.47% to 4.17% [15] 3.3 Economic and Corporate Earnings - Economic Indicators: Q2 GDP growth was 5.2%; July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%; June consumption growth slowed to 4.8%; exports maintained resilience; investment growth declined to 2.8% [36][39][42] - Corporate Earnings: In Q1 2025, the revenue growth of non - financial A - share listed companies slightly declined but was still higher than Q3 2024, and the operating net cash flow improved [45] 3.4 Interest Rates and Credit Environment - Interest Rates: 10Y treasury and 3 - year AA - corporate bond rates declined [48] - Credit Environment: In June 2025, M1 growth was 4.6%, M2 growth was 8.3%, and social financing increased by 4.20 trillion yuan, with government bonds and corporate short - term loans being the main contributors [59] 3.5 Capital Flows - Inflow: This week, 146.21 billion shares of new equity - biased funds were established, and the net margin purchase was 326.43 billion yuan [65][69] - Outflow: This week, major shareholders had a net increase of - 50.67 billion yuan, and there was 1 IPO approval [72] 3.6 Valuation - P/E Ratio (TTM): Shanghai 50 was 11.49, CSI 300 was 13.33, CSI 500 was 30.58, and CSI 1000 was 42.19 [76] - P/B Ratio (LF): Shanghai 50 was 1.27, CSI 300 was 1.41, CSI 500 was 2.06, and CSI 1000 was 2.34 [76]