出口超预期、物价低徘徊，国债期货或延续震荡

Report Overview - Report Title: "Export Surpasses Expectations, Prices Linger at Low Levels, Treasury Bond Futures May Continue to Fluctuate" - Report Date: August 9, 2025 - Researcher: Liu Yang - Contact Information: liuyang18036@greendh.com - Futures Qualification Certificate Number: F3063825 - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0016580 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The central government emphasizes continuous and timely efforts in macro - policies, with more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. The 7 - month export growth is better than expected, but likely to slow down. July's CPI is flat and PPI is down, with overall prices at a low level. Residents tend to save more. The stock market's changes will affect the bond market, and treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate in the short - term, with a suggestion to consider buying on dips [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, the main contracts of treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose slightly. The 30 - year treasury bond rose 0.19%, the 10 - year rose 0.18%, the 5 - year rose 0.10%, and the 2 - year rose 0.03% [5]. - As of August 8, compared with August 1, the 2 - year and 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond yields decreased by 3BP, 2BP, and 2BP respectively, while the 30 - year yield increased by 1BP [7]. 3.2 Foreign Trade Data - In July, China's exports in US dollars increased by 7.2% year - on - year, better than the expected 5.8%, and imports increased by 4.1%, better than the expected 0.3%. The trade surplus was $98.24 billion. From January to July, exports increased by 6.1% year - on - year [10]. - In July, exports to ASEAN increased by 16.6%, to the EU by 9.2%, and to the US decreased by 21.7%. Exports to countries and regions outside the top five continued to grow at a high rate [12][15]. 3.3 Price Data - In July, CPI was flat year - on - year, better than the expected - 0.1%, and rose 0.4% month - on - month. Food prices decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, while non - food prices increased [18][20]. - In July, PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.4%, and decreased by 0.2% month - on - month. Production and living material prices both decreased [26][28]. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index continued to decline slightly this week after reaching a high on July 25 [31]. 3.4 Economic Survey Data - In the second - quarter urban depositor survey, the future income confidence index and employment expectation index both declined compared with the first quarter [33]. - In the second - quarter survey, the proportion of residents inclined to "more savings" increased, while those inclined to "more consumption" decreased [35]. 3.5 Capital Market Data - After the month - end, this week's capital interest rates remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was between 1.31% - 1.32%, DR007 was 1.45%, and the one - year AAA inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate was 1.63%, lower than last week [38]. 3.6 Market Logic and Trading Strategy - Market Logic: The central government emphasizes policy efforts, the 7 - month export is better than expected but likely to slow, prices are low, and residents tend to save more. The stock market affects the bond market, and treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate [40]. - Trading Strategy: Traders are advised to conduct band - trading operations [41].