科技制造产业月报（2025年8月）：反内卷政策如何重塑制造业？-20250809

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights the transformation of China's manufacturing industry from a low-cost, low-value model to a high-value, innovation-driven model, driven by anti-involution policies [2][3][48] - Short-term effects of these policies include the exit of inefficient capacities, increased industry concentration, and a rebound in profit margins [2][3][53] - The long-term outlook suggests a structural shift in global competitiveness, with China aiming to ascend the value chain through technological innovation and sustainable practices [3][48] Summary by Sections 1. Transformation Journey of China's Manufacturing Industry - The manufacturing industry has evolved through several stages: from "world factory" to "intelligent manufacturing powerhouse," with significant advancements in technology and production capabilities [10][19] - Key challenges include low profit margins due to reliance on low-end manufacturing and excessive competition [8][9] 2. Impact of Anti-Involution Policies - Short-term: The policies are expected to lead to industry reshuffling, with inefficient firms exiting the market, thus enhancing market concentration and improving profit margins [2][3][53] - Mid-term: The focus will shift from price competition to value competition, with an emphasis on R&D and innovation leading to higher quality products [2][3] - Long-term: The policies aim to reshape global competitiveness, allowing China to build new barriers in supply chain stability and efficiency [3][48] 3. Current Challenges - The industry faces internal challenges such as low-price competition, overcapacity, and insufficient innovation motivation, alongside external pressures from global supply chain restructuring [37][45] - The report notes that many sectors are experiencing a decline in profitability, with companies caught in a cycle of increasing production without corresponding profit growth [38][40] 4. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that successful implementation of anti-involution policies will enable Chinese manufacturers to transition from being price takers to technology price setters, particularly in high-value sectors like new energy and AI [53][54] - The focus on sustainable development and innovation is expected to create a healthier industrial environment conducive to long-term growth [53][54]