贵金属月报:关税与降息预期交织，多重属性利多贵金属上行-20250809

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Fundamentals: Since July, the cease - fire between Israel and Hamas has cooled the Middle East tension, weakening the impact of geopolitical conflicts on precious metal prices. The U.S. tariff trade policy is fickle. Trump postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" from July 9th to August 1st and sent tariff letters to trading partners. Trade progress boosts the U.S. dollar and market risk sentiment, while deadlocks in negotiations with some countries support the safe - haven appeal of precious metals. With the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation rising, precious metal prices are expected to break through the oscillation range. COMEX gold futures reached a high of $3451.7 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures hit $39.91 per ounce [3]. - Capital: Last month, COMEX gold and silver inventories increased. Global gold reserves continued to rise, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold holdings for the eighth consecutive month. Gold and silver ETF fund inflows increased, and hedge funds increased their long - positions in gold. The global demand and reserves of gold maintained growth, and ETF investment demand remained strong, providing bottom support for precious metal prices [3]. - Strategy: As tariff sentiment eases, the impact of trade policy changes on precious metal prices will gradually weaken. The weak U.S. labor data and the rising expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut will boost precious metal prices. The Shanghai gold price is bullish in the long - term, has an upward trend in the short - term, and it is recommended to hold long or buy low and sell high in the medium - term. The Shanghai silver price shows a slight increase in the short - term, and it is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities and buy on dips in the medium - term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Key Indicator Changes: COMEX gold futures rose 1.97% to $3416 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures increased 2.37% to $37.11 per ounce. COMEX gold inventory rose 4.5% to 3871.56 million ounces, and COMEX silver inventory increased 1.09% to 50666.16 million ounces. The speculative net long - position of COMEX gold increased 10.7% to 22.36 million lots, while that of COMEX silver decreased 6.3% to 5.94 million lots [6]. - Gold - Silver Ratio: Since July, the gold - silver ratio at home and abroad has been falling, but it is still significantly higher than the long - term average, indicating that the silver price is undervalued and has the opportunity to make up for the increase [7]. - Price Difference: The price difference between domestic and foreign markets of gold and silver has decreased compared with last month. In July, affected by tariffs and interest - rate cut expectations, precious metal prices showed an oscillating trend [10]. 3.2 Macro - environment - U.S. Dollar Index: In July, the U.S. dollar index first rose and then fell, affected by U.S. economic data and tariff policies. The strong non - farm payrolls report in early July strengthened the U.S. dollar, while the trade agreement uncertainties with Japan, the EU and other countries, along with Trump's pressure on the Fed, weakened the U.S. dollar [13]. - U.S. Treasury Yields: The real yields of 5 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasuries first rose and then fell last month, causing precious metal prices to oscillate [15]. - Key Economic Data: In June, the U.S. core PCE price index rose 2.8% year - on - year, and the overall PCE price index rose 2.6% year - on - year. The CPI in June also rebounded. In July, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 48, below expectations, while the ISM services PMI in June was 50.8, slightly higher than expected. Retail sales in June increased 0.6% month - on - month. In July, ADP employment increased by 104,000, but the labor market cooled. Non - farm payrolls in July dropped to 73,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% [20][23][26]. - Fed's Decision: In July, the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged with a 9 - 2 vote. There are differences within the Fed, and it maintains a wait - and - see stance. The U.S. tariff trade policy is volatile, and recent trade progress has boosted the U.S. dollar and market risk sentiment [32]. - Central Bank Gold Buying: 43% of surveyed central banks plan to increase gold reserves in the next 12 months. In the second quarter of 2025, global gold demand increased 3% year - on - year. The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for eight consecutive months, and global central banks' gold - buying demand will support the gold price [33]. 3.3 Position Analysis - Hedge Fund Positions: As of July 29, 2025, CMX gold speculative net long - positions increased by 2.16 million lots to 22.36 million lots, while CMX silver speculative net long - positions decreased by 0.4 million lots to 5.94 million lots [36]. - ETF Positions: As of August 1, 2025, the SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 4.85 tons to 953.08 tons, and the SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 187.66 tons to 15056.66 tons, indicating accelerated fund inflows into gold and silver ETFs [37]. 3.4 Other Elements - Inventory: As of August 1, 2025, COMEX gold inventory increased 4.5% to 3871.56 million ounces, and COMEX silver inventory increased 1.09% to 50666.16 million ounces [41]. - Demand: In July 2025, global gold reserves increased by 31.55 tons to 36305.84 tons, and China's gold reserves increased by 1.86 tons to 2296.35 tons. In the second quarter of 2025, global gold demand increased 3% year - on - year. The global silver gap is expected to narrow by 21% in 2025, and industrial demand for silver remains strong [44]. - Outlook: As tariff sentiment eases, the impact of trade policies on precious metal prices will weaken. The U.S. labor market imbalance provides an opportunity for the Fed to cut interest rates, which will boost precious metal prices. Central banks' gold - buying strategies also support precious metal prices. However, attention should be paid to the impact of tariff implementation, economic data, and geopolitical risks [45].