玉米拍卖及新季即将上市，盘面创新低

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn market is experiencing a bottom - side oscillation. The US corn 12 - contract is expected to have limited downside below 400 cents per bushel. Corn auctions are ongoing, and with the upcoming new - season corn harvest in September, the market anticipates that Shandong corn prices may drop below 2,200 yuan/ton when a large amount of North China corn hits the market in mid - October. The 09 corn contract may trade in a narrow range around 2,250 yuan/ton, while the 01 corn contract may decline to around 2,150 yuan/ton under favorable weather conditions. The 09 starch contract is expected to remain weak due to its high price differentials with corn and the 01 starch contract [4]. - For trading strategies, one can consider buying the US corn 12 - contract below 400 cents per bushel, buying the 01 corn contract around 2,150 yuan/ton, and paying attention to the 9 - 1 starch reverse spread opportunity (around 100) and the opportunity to narrow the spread between the 09 corn and starch contracts (420 - 380). Options trading should be on hold [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Corn Situation: The US corn is at the bottom and oscillating, with the price significantly below the cost (480 cents per bushel). The 12 - contract is expected to have limited downside below 400 cents per bushel. As of August 8, 2.89 million tons of corn were up for auction, with 1.18 million tons sold, a 41% success rate. High 09 - contract warehouse receipts (1.5 million tons), reduced domestic planting costs, and large losses in deep - processing industries are causing domestic corn spot prices to decline. The market is shifting focus to new crops, especially in North China, where it is expected that North China corn prices will likely fall below 2,200 yuan/ton in October. The 09 corn contract may trade narrowly around 2,250 yuan/ton, and the 01 corn contract may drop to 2,150 yuan/ton under good weather [4]. - Starch Situation: Starch factory operating rates are rising, but downstream demand remains weak. Although corn spot prices are falling, starch spot prices are also dropping, and starch factories are still facing large losses. The operating rates of North China starch enterprises will decline later, and with the upcoming new - corn harvest, North China starch prices will continue to fall. The 09 starch contract is expected to remain weak due to its high price differentials [4]. - Trading Strategies: - Unilateral Trading: Consider buying the US corn 12 - contract below 400 cents per bushel. The 09 corn contract may trade in a narrow range of 2,230 - 2,280 yuan/ton, and the 01 corn contract can be bought around 2,150 yuan/ton [5]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 9 - 1 starch reverse spread opportunity around 100 and the opportunity to narrow the spread between the 09 corn and starch contracts (420 - 380) [5]. - Options: Hold off on options trading [5]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 2.1 International Market - US Corn Weather and Supply - Demand: Favorable weather conditions are contributing to the bottom - side oscillation of US corn. The US corn import tariff is 26% for corn and 23% for sorghum. The domestic import profit has widened, with a 390 - yuan profit in the Guangdong port as Brazilian corn is expected to arrive at 2,040 yuan/ton in September while the Guangdong port price is 2,430 yuan/ton [8]. - US Corn Export and Inventory: As of July 31, the weekly US corn export inspection volume was 1.21 million tons, with a cumulative export volume of 61.56 million tons. The weekly export volume to China was 0 tons, and the cumulative export volume to China was 270,000 tons, accounting for 0.04%. In June, 160,000 tons of corn were imported, and from January to June, the cumulative import volume was 790,000 tons, compared with 11.05 million tons in the same period last year [9]. - US Corn Non - Commercial Net Short and Ethanol Production: As of July 29, the non - commercial net short position of US corn decreased to 130,000 lots, and US ethanol production rebounded. The US corn 12 - contract is expected to have limited downside below 400 cents per bushel in the short term [15]. 2.2 Domestic Market - Deep - Processing and Feed Inventory: Feed enterprise corn inventories are decreasing but are higher than the same period last year. As of August 7, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed mills was 30.44 days, a decrease of 0.14 days from the previous week and a 3.4% increase from the same period last year. Deep - processing consumption is rising, with 1.1646 million tons of corn consumed by 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises from August 1 to August 8, an increase of 26,900 tons from the previous week. Deep - processing inventories are decreasing, with the inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises at 3.643 million tons as of August 6, a 4.06% decrease from the previous week [19][20]. - Port Inventories: Northern port corn inventories are declining, while southern port grain inventories are stable. On August 1, the corn inventory at the four northern ports was 1.905 million tons, a decrease of 201,000 tons from the previous week, and the four - port shipping volume was 240,000 tons, a decrease of 153,000 tons from the previous week. In the Guangdong port, the total grain inventory increased by 22,000 tons to 1.728 million tons [23]. - Starch Market: Starch factory operating rates are rising, with the national corn processing volume at 560,500 tons and the starch production at 278,500 tons from August 1 to August 7, an increase of 10,700 tons from the previous week. The operating rate reached 53.83%, a 2.07% increase from the previous week. Although corn prices are falling, starch prices are also dropping, and the profit loss is expanding. The Heilongjiang profit per ton of corn is - 107 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan from the previous week, while the Shandong profit is - 118 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan from the previous week. Starch inventories are rising, with the inventory at 1.32 million tons as of August 6, an increase of 27,000 tons from the previous week, a 2.1% increase [26]. - Substitute Products: Wheat prices are basically stable, with the North China arrival price around 2,450 yuan/ton. The price differential between wheat and corn is widening, North China corn prices are falling while Northeast corn prices are relatively strong, and the price differential between North China and Northeast corn is expanding [32]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Livestock and Poultry Farming: From August 1 to August 7, the self - breeding and self - raising profit for pigs was 31 yuan/head, a decrease of 13 yuan/head from the previous week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 187 yuan/head, a decrease of 16 yuan/head from the previous week. The white - feather broiler farming profit was 1.16 yuan per chicken, compared with 0.03 yuan per chicken in the previous week. The egg - laying hen farming cost was 3.54 yuan per catty, and the profit was - 0.53 yuan per catty, compared with - 0.29 yuan per catty in the previous week [42][48]. - Starch Downstream Consumption: The F55 high - fructose corn syrup operating rate was 58.12%, an increase of 0.69% from the previous week, and the maltose syrup operating rate was 46.9%, an increase of 3.32% from the previous week. The corrugated paper operating rate was 61.9%, a decrease of 1.22% from the previous week, and the box - board paper operating rate was 68.68%, an increase of 1.33% from the previous week [51]. - Price and Spread Data: The report also tracks prices of corn and substitute products, as well as various price spreads such as corn 09 basis, corn 9 - 1 spread, and corn starch 9 - 1 spread [52][60].