钢材：原料供应继续收缩，钢价延续高位震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a state where supply fundamentals are peaking, with high crude steel supply and seasonal decline in demand, resulting in certain supply - demand pressures. However, due to coal mine production checks and expected steel mill production restrictions in August, the subsequent iron - water output may decline, which could drive the futures market up. In the short term, steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level trend. Traders are advised to wait and see for single - side trading, consider positive basis trading when the basis is low and narrowing the spread between hot - rolled and rebar for arbitrage, and wait and see for options trading [4][7][9]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - Supply: This week, the small - sample production of rebar increased by 10.12 tons to 221.18 tons, while that of hot - rolled decreased by 7.9 tons to 314.89 tons. The daily average iron - water output of 247 blast furnaces was 240.32 tons (- 0.39 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills was 34.5% (+ 1.4%). The production enthusiasm of the overall steel industry was relatively strong [4]. - Demand: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 210.79 tons (+ 7.38 tons), and that for hot - rolled was 306.21 tons (- 13.79 tons). Steel exports declined due to rising prices. The real estate market was still in a downward trend, but the manufacturing PMI expanded, and the automobile industry maintained positive growth in both domestic and foreign demand, while the home appliance industry entered a demand off - season [4]. - Inventory: Rebar inventory increased by 10.39 tons, hot - rolled inventory increased by 8.68 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased by 23.47 tons [4]. - Outlook: In the short term, steel prices may maintain a high - level trend. Future attention should be paid to overseas tariffs and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. - Trading Strategies: For single - side trading, maintain a high - level trend and recommend waiting and seeing; for arbitrage, recommend positive basis trading when the basis is low and narrowing the spread between hot - rolled and rebar; for options, recommend waiting and seeing [9]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - Spot Prices: The rebar summary price in Shanghai was 3340 yuan (- 20 yuan), and in Beijing was 3300 yuan (+ 40 yuan). The hot - rolled price in Shanghai was 3460 yuan (+ 50 yuan), and in Tianjin was 3400 yuan (+ 20 yuan) [13]. - Profit: The flat - rate electricity profit of East - China electric furnaces was - 44.37 yuan (+ 9.5 yuan), and the valley - rate electricity profit was + 121 yuan (+ 10 yuan). The profit of long - process steel decreased slightly but remained above 100 yuan [4][30]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - Domestic Policies: A new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" will be implemented on February 1, 2026. Seven departments including the central bank issued a guiding opinion on financial support for new industrialization, and three departments issued a plan for a new round of rural road improvement [32]. - Foreign Policies: The US may impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors [32]. - Macroeconomic Data: In June, the new social financing scale was 4.2 trillion yuan, with an increase in both new RMB loans and government bond issuance. The M1 - M2 growth rate was - 3.7%, with a significant reduction in the decline. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment was + 2.8%, with a decline in the growth rate [42]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - Supply: The daily average iron - water output of 247 blast furnaces was 240.32 tons (- 0.39 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 electric furnaces was 34.5% (+ 1.6%). The small - sample production of rebar increased, while that of hot - rolled decreased [4][62][67]. - Demand: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar increased, while that for hot - rolled decreased. The export of steel decreased due to rising prices. The real estate market was still weak, the manufacturing industry expanded, the automobile industry maintained growth, and the home appliance industry entered an off - season [4][70]. - Inventory: The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled both increased, and the total inventory of five major steel products also increased [4].