Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ferroalloy market shows a pattern of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, with a relatively stable fundamental situation. However, there is a need to be vigilant about the potential pressure caused by the continuous increase in supply in the later stage. After the cooling of the "anti - involution" trading sentiment, the weights of the delivery and basis logic for the 09 contract are gradually increasing, and it is expected to fluctuate around the warehouse receipt cost this week [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Fundamentals: In terms of supply, despite the previous call for self - restraint in production by leading enterprises, the production of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese continued to rise slightly this week due to price increases. On the demand side, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased slightly, and the molten iron output of 247 steel mills also declined, but remained at a high level. Steel production increased slightly month - on - month, and the number of steel mill tenders also rose, providing support for alloys. In terms of cost, electricity prices were stable this week, and port manganese ore prices were generally firm, with overseas mines mostly raising their September US dollar quotes slightly. Overall, the alloy market shows a pattern of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, with a stable fundamental situation [4]. - Market sentiment: The leading "anti - involution" varieties showed differentiation this week. Although polysilicon and coking coal both closed up on the weekly line, their upward momentum slowed down significantly, and their driving effect on other commodities also weakened. After entering August, the weights of delivery and basis logic for the 09 contract began to gradually increase, and it is expected that commodity performance will continue to differentiate [4]. Strategy - Single - side trading: Operate around the warehouse receipt cost [5]. - Arbitrage: Consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the basis is at a low level [5]. - Options: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Supply and Demand Data Tracking - Demand: The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 2.4032 million tons, a decrease of 0.0039 million tons month - on - month. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel products was 20,300 tons, an increase of 300 tons month - on - month; the weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel products was 125,200 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons month - on - month [10]. - Supply: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 34.32%, an increase of 0.56% month - on - month; the national ferrosilicon production was 109,100 tons, an increase of 4,700 tons month - on - month. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 43.43%, an increase of 1.25% month - on - month; the national silicomanganese production was 195,800 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons month - on - month [11]. - Inventory: In the week of August 8th, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 72,000 tons, an increase of 6,200 tons month - on - month; the inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 161,500 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons month - on - month [12]. Spot Price - Basis - Graphs show the market prices of Inner Mongolia silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 and Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon 72%FeSi, as well as the basis of the main contract for Inner Mongolia silicomanganese and ferrosilicon from 2021 - 2025 [17]. Production Situation of Double - Silicon Enterprises - Graphs present the weekly production and operating rates of Chinese silicomanganese and ferrosilicon enterprises from 2021 - 2025 [23]. Steel Mill Production Situation - Graphs display the blast furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly total steel production, profitability rate, social total steel inventory, and daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills from 2021 - 2025 [29]. Silicomanganese Cost and Profit - There are tables and graphs showing the production costs, profits, and monthly production proportions of silicomanganese in different regions on August 7, 2025 [31]. Cost - Manganese Ore Price - Graphs show the prices of South African Mn36.5% semi - carbonate manganese lumps at Tianjin Port, South African South32 semi - carbonate manganese lumps FOB quotes, Tianjin Port manganese ore prices, and manganese ore forward FOB quotes from 2021 - 2025 [39]. Ferrosilicon Cost and Profit - There are tables and graphs presenting the production costs, profits, and monthly production proportions of ferrosilicon in different regions on August 7, 2025 [41]. Cost - Carbon Element and Electricity Price - Graphs show the prices of Fugu blue carbon small materials, Yulin thermal coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices from 2021 - 2025 [48][51]. Double - Silicon Steel Tendering Prices of Representative Hebei Steel Mills - Graphs display the procurement prices of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B and silicomanganese 6517 by Hebei Iron and Steel Group from 2020 - 2025 [53]. Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon Supply - Monthly Production - Graphs show the cumulative and monthly production of Chinese silicomanganese and ferrosilicon from 2021 - 2025 [60][63]. Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon Import and Export - Graphs present the monthly net imports of Chinese manganese ore and the monthly net exports of ferrosilicon from 2012 - 2025 [68]. Magnesium Metal Demand - Graphs show the price of Fugu magnesium metal Mg99.9% and the cumulative production of magnesium metal in Yulin, Shaanxi from 2013 - 2025 [70]. Silicon - Iron Inventory of Alloy Plants vs. Steel Mills - Graphs display the silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants, the regional silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants, the available days of silicon - iron inventory in steel mills, and the regional available days of silicon - iron inventory in steel mills from 2021 - 2025 [74]. Manganese Ore Inventory of Alloy Plants, Steel Mills, and Ports - Graphs show the available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills, the regional available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills, the total manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port, and the silicomanganese inventory of alloy plants from 2021 - 2025 [77].
交割权重逐步增加，围绕仓单成本震荡为主
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-08-09 08:58