Guoxin Securities·2025-08-09 12:12Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][6][20] Core Viewpoints - The ongoing market-oriented reform in the natural gas sector is expected to benefit leading companies like China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) [5][6] - The company is projected to see steady growth in natural gas production, with significant contributions from the East Route natural gas pipeline from Russia, which is expected to increase imports by 8 billion cubic meters year-on-year by 2025 [5][10] - The pricing mechanism for domestic natural gas pipeline transportation is set to be unified, which may lead to lower transportation costs and improved market dynamics [4][14][16] - The comprehensive pricing for natural gas is anticipated to rise as the proportion of market-based pricing increases in the company's sales strategy [18][19] Summary by Relevant Sections Gas Supply Side - CNPC is focused on increasing reserves and production, with domestic natural gas output steadily rising. The Daqing oilfield saw an increase of 10,900 tons in crude oil production and 222 million cubic meters in natural gas production year-on-year in the first half of the year [7] - The average price of the company's natural gas resource pool is expected to decline due to lower import prices linked to crude oil [5][10] Pipeline Transportation - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration (NEA) have issued guidelines to unify provincial natural gas pipeline transportation prices, which are expected to lower costs and enhance market efficiency [4][14] - The guidelines suggest a permitted return rate not exceeding 5.7%, which could further reduce transportation prices [14][16] End User Pricing - The pricing scheme for CNPC's pipeline natural gas is becoming more market-oriented, with a reduction in the proportion of regulated gas, leading to an expected increase in comprehensive gas prices [18][19] - The company anticipates that the marketization of gas sales will enhance profitability in its natural gas business [18][19] Financial Projections - The company maintains its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 167.4 billion, 170.9 billion, and 174 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with diluted EPS of 0.91, 0.93, and 0.95 yuan respectively [6][20] - The current A-share PE ratios are projected at 10.09, 9.87, and 9.66, while H-share PE ratios are at 6.79, 6.65, and 6.51 [6][20]